Table 1. Summary data and assumptions.

Parameter	Distribution	Mean	Standard Error (S.E.)	Reference
Probability of disease progression
For no-treatment group
Probability of progression from precancer to cancer stage I	Beta	0.04	0.01	[10]
Probability of progression from cancer stage I to II	Beta	0.53	0.27	[19]
Probability of progression from cancer stage II to III	Beta	0.59	0.25
Probability of progression from cancer stage III to IV	Beta	0.67	0.25
Probability of precancerous lesion regression	Beta	0.30	0.10	[20]
For treatment group
Probabilities of disease progression of each cancer stage are less than the no-treatment group by a half. (using hazard ratio = 0.50)	-	0.50	-	[9]
Probability of precancerous lesion being cured after treatment	-	0.58	-	[20, 21]
Probability of loss to follow-up treatment and developing cancer stage I	-	0.01	-	[19] and mail survey
Probability of death
For treatment group
Probability of death from cancer stage I	Beta	0.20	0.01	Meta-analysis [7–9]
Probability of death from cancer stage II	Beta	0.34	0.06
Probability of death cancer from stage III	Beta	0.42	0.08
Probability of death cancer from stage IV	Beta	0.52	0.10
For no-treatment group
Probabilities of death of each cancer stage are more than the treatment group by a half. (using hazard ratio = 2)	-	2.00	-	[9]
Compliance with screening
Screening program
MSE at no cancer and precancer	-	0.97	-	Pilot study, by the Bureau of Dental Health
Visual screening by TDN at no cancer and precancer	-	0.80	-
Visual screening by TDT at no cancer and precancer	-	0.76	-
Visual screening by oral surgeons at precancer	-	0.91	-
Visual screening at cancer stages I to VI	-	1.00	-	Assumption
Biopsy	-	0.62	-	S1 Table
No-screening program
Self-referral rate to general dentist without precancer and cancer	-	0.04	-	[22]
Self-referral rate to general dentist at cancer stage I and II	-	0.43	-
Self-referral rate to general dentist at cancer stages III and IV	-	0.82	-
Biopsy	-	0.51	-	[23]
Compliance with treatment
Precancer stage	-	0.94	-	Data collection
Cancer stage I	-	0.98	-
Cancer stage II	-	0.98	-
Cancer stage III	-	0.94	-
Cancer stage IV	-	0.84	-
Performance of screening
Screening program
Sensitivity of MSE	Beta	0.20	0.03	Pilot study, by the Bureau of Dental Health
Specificity of MSE	Beta	0.81	0.02
Sensitivity of visual examination by TDN	Beta	0.44	0.06
Specificity of visual examination by TDN	Beta	0.79	0.02
Sensitivity of visual examination by TDT	Beta	0.87	0.04	[24–26]
Specificity of visual examination by TDT	Beta	0.85	0.05	[24–26]
Sensitivity of visual examination by oral surgeon	Beta	0.76	0.03	[27]
No-screening program
Sensitivity of visual examination by general dentist	Beta	0.84	0.09	[28, 29]
Specificity of visual examination by general dentist	Beta	0.82	0.14	[28, 29]
Sensitivity of visual examination by oral surgeon	Beta	0.76	0.03	[27]
Cost of screening
Direct medical costs
Cost of screening program management	-	0.25	-	Pilot study, by the Bureau of Dental Health
Cost of MSE	-	5	-	[30] and data collection
Cost of visual screening by TDN	-	34	-
Cost of visual screening by TDT	-	43	-
Cost of visual screening by general dentist	-	95	-	[31]
Cost of visual screening by oral surgeon	-	90	-	[30] and data collection
Cost of biopsy	-	450	-	[32]
Direct non-medical costs
Transportation cost of visual screening by TDN	Gamma	57	4	[33]
Transportation cost of visual screening by TDT	Gamma	76	4
Transportation cost of visual screening by oral surgeon	Gamma	151	12
Lost productivity work time to visual screening by TDN	Gamma	14	4
Lost productivity work time to visual screening by TDT	Gamma	52	6
Lost productivity work time to visual screening by oral surgeon	Gamma	85	14
Cost of treatment
Direct medical costs
Precancer	Gamma	758	177	Data collection
Cancer stage I	Gamma	63,546	10,250	[34]
Cancer stage II	Gamma	68,753	15,870
Cancer stage III	Gamma	78,749	8,205
Cancer stage VI	Gamma	106,529	5,978
Direct non-medical costs
Precancer	Gamma	11,044	1,841	Data collection
Cancer stage I	Gamma	18,460	5,630
Cancer stage II	Gamma	75,896	14,422
Cancer stage III	Gamma	54,300	10,497
Cancer stage VI	Gamma	54,265	9,511
Utility
Precancer	Beta	0.83	0.02	Data collection
Cancer stages I to II	Beta	0.61	0.05
Cancer stages III to VI	Beta	0.34	0.09