Table 3.
Results of DIYABC analyses. In each population the best supported scenario is indicated according to its posterior probability [PP; mean and 95 % Bayesian highest posterior density interval (HPD)], obtained by logistic regression from 1 % of the simulations that best approximate the observed values. NA (not available) is shown for populations for which it was not possible to discriminate a statistically robust scenario
| Population | Population | No. of individuals | Best supported scenario | PP (HPD) | N e | N 4 | t 4 | N eµmic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canarina eminii, continental islands | ||||||||
| 1. Gifta and Dembecha | Abyssinian massif | 16 | NA | − | − | − | − | − |
| 3. Yirga | Harar massif | 13 | NA | − | − | − | − | − |
| 4. Harenna | Harar massif | 9 | NA | − | − | − | − | − |
| 5. Aberdare | Aberdare Mountains | 8 | Decline | 0.7511 (0.6710, 0.8312) | 5.17E+02 | 6.33E+E04 | 2.03E+03 | 9.73E−02 |
| 6. Elgon | Mount Elgon | 8 | Decline | 0.6912 (0.6544, 0.7280) | 5.35E+02 | 5.94E+E04 | 2.89E+03 | 1.39E−01 |
| 7. Rwenzori | Rwenzori Mountains | 10 | Decline | 0.6986 (0.6631, 0.7342) | 1.03E+03 | 5.84E+E04 | 3.56E+03 | 1.92E−01 |
| Canarina canariensis, oceanic islands | ||||||||
| 8. Cueva Corcho | Gran Canaria | 8 | Decline | 0.9293 (0.9066, 0.9519) | 5.50E+02 | 6.59E+E04 | 1.72E+03 | 9.91E−02 |
| 9. Tilos de Moya | Gran Canaria | 12 | Decline | 0.9400 (0.7882, 1.0000) | 6.60E+02 | 6.33E+E04 | 2.01E+03 | 1.22E−01 |
| 10. El Sao | Gran Canaria | 10 | Decline | 0.3902 (0.3325, 0.4478) | 6.83E+02 | 5.11E+E04 | 4.51E+03 | 1.05E−01 |
| 11. Andenes de Guayedra | Gran Canaria | 12 | Decline | 0.6930 (0.6497, 0.7363) | 5.00E+02 | 5.77E+E04 | 2.90E+03 | 9.07E−02 |
| 12. Camino Chamuscadas | Tenerife (Anaga) | 10 | Decline | 0.5972 (0.5646, 0.6298) | 1.25E+03 | 5.06E+E04 | 4.96E+03 | 4.01E−01 |
| 13. El Bailadero | Tenerife (Anaga) | 11 | Decline | 0.9265 (0.7775, 1.0000) | 1.03E+03 | 6.07E+E04 | 4.02E+03 | 2.10E−01 |
| 14. Tope del Carnero | Tenerife (Anaga) | 7 | Decline | 0.6000 (0.1706, 1.0000) | 1.40E+03 | 7.48E+E03 | 3.51E+03 | 2.78E−01 |
| 15. Teno Alto | Tenerife (Teno) | 8 | Decline | 0.9523 (0.9360, 0.9686) | 1.06E+03 | 6.90E+E04 | 2.87E+03 | 2.09E−01 |
| 16. El Palmar | Tenerife (Teno) | 8 | Decline | 0.9511 (0.9354, 0.9668) | 1.34E+03 | 6.25E+E04 | 3.46E+03 | 2.61E−01 |
| 17. Barranco del Infierno | Tenerife (Adeje) | 11 | Decline | 0.9940 (0.9880, 1.0000) | 9.31E+02 | 6.89E+E04 | 1.87E+03 | 1.73E−01 |
| 18. Barranco de Badajoz | Tenerife | 5 | Decline | 0.8499 (0.8096, 0.8902) | 7.41E+02 | 6.65E+E04 | 3.39E+03 | 1.56E−01 |
| 19. Barranco Ruiz | Tenerife | 6 | Decline | 0, 8775 (0.8423, 0.9127) | 8.70E+02 | 6.18E+E04 | 2.35E+03 | 1.45E−01 |
| 20. Tamargada | La Gomera | 13 | NA | − | − | − | − | − |
| 21. Los Tilos | La Palma | 10 | Decline | 0.8024 (0.7579, 0.8469) | 9.00E+02 | 5.07E+E04 | 2.83E+03 | 1.64E−01 |
| 22. Barranco del Agua | La Palma | 10 | Decline | 0.7253 (0.6768, 0.7738) | 7.70E+02 | 5.71E+E04 | 2.37E+03 | 1.43E−01 |
| 24. El Hierro | El Hierro | 12 | Decline | 0.7498 (0.6942, 0.8054) | 9.18E+02 | 5.43E+E04 | 2.44E+03 | 1.51E−01 |
N e, current effective population size; N4, effective population size at the beginning of the decline; t4, start time of decline, measured in number of generations; Neμmic, current effective population size × micros mutation rate.