Table 4.
Impact on beverage and energy consumption, cases of overweight, obesity, T2DM, IHD and stroke, mortality and revenue raised following $0.30 tax on SSBs, for income quintiles 1 (lowest income) to 5 (highest income)
| Quintile | 1 (95% CI) (lowest) | 2 (95% CI) | 3 (95% CI) | 4 (95% CI) | 5 (95% CI) (highest) |
| % Change SSB consumption | −23.1 (−36.61 to −17.64) | −23.4 (−45.67 to 4.28) | −20.1 (−39.45 to −8.17) | −21.2 (−56.85 to 25.74) | −21.1 (−29.32 to 23.69) |
| Change kJ/person/day | −1.9 (−2.6 to −1.06) | −4.8 (−9.49 to 0.65) | −8.9 (−15.2 to −2.3) | −16.7 (−41.1 to 13.6) | −53.1 (−67.4 to −39.8) |
| Change N overweight female | −8152 (−122 299 to −4145) | −20 856 (−41 789 to 2561) | −33 211 (−58 376 to −8344) | −60 307 (−153 374 to 45 269) | −198 615 (−263 475 to −139 654) |
| Change N overweight male | −9969 (−14 272 to −6042) | −25 768 (−50 759 to 2812) | −47 416 (−81 417 to −13 428) | −91 127 (−222 672 to 71 154) | −269 087 (−356 216 to −194 072) |
| Change N obese female | −6371 (−9476 to −3350) | −17 988 (−35 807 to 2218) | −35 722 (−62 217 to −9095) | −69 552 (−173 826 to 54 681) | −218 131 (−282 736 to −158 893) |
| Change N obese male | −1873 (−2682 to −1114) | −6404 (−12 592 to 702) | −15 847 (−27 202 to −4587) | −34 517 (−82 895 to 28 623) | −145 484 (−189 986 to −105 912) |
| Change T2DM incidence, 25 years | −63 442 (−245 067 to −8410) | −154 657 (−563 209 to −17 288) | −269 455 (−795 551 to −45 417) | −515 337 (−1 493 083 to 106 713) | −1 487 448 (−3 086 603 to −545 193) |
| Change IHD incidence, 25 years | −1473 (−1965 to −1029) | −3924 (−7452 to 376) | −7451 (−12 473 to −2086) | −14 594 (−35 186 to 11 617) | −48 168 (−58 765 to −38 274) |
| Change stroke incidence, 25 years | −1384 (−1883 to −943) | −3672 (−7084 to 321) | −6903 (−11 745 to −1965) | −13 543 (−33 020 to 10 744) | −44 746 (−56 744 to 34 291) |
| Change mortality T2DM, 25 years | −41 648 (−161 647 to −3940) | −102 725 (−366 426 to −9855) | −178 912 (−545 059 to −29 345) | −340 960 (−1 013 058 to 70 776) | −979 722 (2 164 741 to −323 222) |
| Change mortality IHD, 25 years | −741 (−993 to −512) | −1979 (−3772 to 195) | −3776 (−6282 to −1062) | −7414 (−18 075 to 5905) | −24 569 (−29 930 to −19 358) |
| Change mortality stroke, 25 years | −1131 (−1545 to −768) | −3005 (−5819 to 265) | −5657 (−9627 to −1605) | −11 127 (−27 158 to 8805) | −36 828 (−46 924 to −28 319) |
| Lifetime HALYs gained, female | 38 382 (3418 to 142 492) | 95 295 (−10 542 to 327 430) | 158 051 (28 299 to 456 420) | 286 937 (−70 740 to 794 676) | 800 609 (313 745 to 1 587 476) |
| Lifetime HALYs gained, male | 30 594 (4028 to 116 725) | 878 059 (−8911 to 272 197) | 144 822 (26 175 to 424 111) | 288 893 (−59 530 to 812 094) | 886 920 (345 177 to 1 848 831) |
| Revenue ($ million) 25 years, 3% discount | 536 (488 to 607) | 1414 (1111 to 1843) | 3325 (2579 to 8242) | 7022 (4679 to 11 064) | 15 011 (13 703 to 17 295) |
Results show the net per capita change in daily energy consumption, reduction in SSB consumption relative to the counterfactual consumption, the change in the numbers with overweight and obesity relative to the counterfactual for men and women, reduced incidence and mortality of T2DM, IHD and stroke over 25 years for men and women combined, lifetime gain in health-adjusted life years for men and women, and revenue raised over 20 years of tax implementation (discounted 3% p.a.).
HALY, health-adjusted life year; IHD, ischaemic heart disease; SSB, sugar-sweetened beverage; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus.