Table 5.

Results from sensitivity analyses modelling no trend in BMI or beverage consumption, equal elasticity estimates for quintiles, halved change in energy intake without cross-price elasticities, equal mortality for quintiles and weighted prices, with output expressed as proportion of base model results

Outcome	Sensitivity	Q1 (lowest)	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5 (highest)
Change obese male	No trends	0.84	0.92	0.86	0.83	0.88
	Elasticities	0.80	0.90	1.05	1.05	0.99
	Half Δenergy	0.50	0.50	0.49	0.51	0.52
	Same mortality	0.99	1.04	1.01	1.04	1.02
	Pricing	1.01	1.07	1.00	1.05	0.97
Change obese female	No trends	0.85	0.92	0.86	0.83	0.88
	Elasticities	0.80	0.88	1.05	1.05	0.99
	Half Δenergy	0.51	0.50	0.49	0.49	0.53
	Same mortality	1.01	1.04	1.03	1.02	1.00
	Pricing	1.00	1.08	1.00	1.07	0.96
Change HALYs male	No trends	0.29	0.34	0.32	0.33	0.36
	Elasticities	0.86	0.91	1.05	1.07	0.99
	Half Δenergy	0.58	0.57	0.54	0.56	0.58
	Same mortality	1.05	1.07	1.01	1.00	0.92
	Pricing	1.02	1.07	1.00	1.07	0.96
Change HALYs female	No trends	0.28	0.31	0.30	0.32	0.34
	Elasticities	0.83	0.91	1.04	1.06	0.99
	Half Δenergy	0.57	0.57	0.54	0.55	0.58
	Same mortality	1.00	1.02	1.01	1.04	1.02
	Pricing	1.03	1.06	1.00	1.05	0.97

BMI, Body Mass Index; HALY, health-adjusted life year.