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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Dec 2.
Published in final edited form as: J Comput Graph Stat. 2017 Oct 9;26(4):918–929. doi: 10.1080/10618600.2017.1328365

Figure 1:

Figure 1:

(a) SIR dynamics in a population of five subjects. The number of infecteds can increase from two to three via an infection of the first or second subject, reaching each of those configurations at rate 2β. The number of recovered individuals can increase from one to two via a recovery of the third or fourth subject, reaching each of those configurations at rate μ. (b) Hidden Markov model for the joint distribution of the latent epidemic process and the data. The observations, Y, ℓ = 1,…,L, are conditionally independent given X(t), and Y|It, ρ ∼ Binomial(It, ρ).