Table 5.
Habit formation model with buyer random effects for households that participated in promotional sessions. The ‘pre-post promotion’ column includes only households that had purchased SQ-LNS before participating in the promotional sessions that launched phase 3 and uses purchases before and after the promotion to estimate the loyalty card effect on demand.
| Phase 3 Only |
Phase 2 & 3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Phase 1 price |
New buyers | Pre-existing buyers | ||
| Low | High | ||||
| Constant | 2.45 | 4.91** | −1.95 | −1.14 | 2.16** |
| (1.83) | (2.21) | (2.47)× | (2.16) | (0.96) | |
| Loyalty card | 0.91*** | 0.78*** | 1.06*** | 0.60** | 0.30 |
| (0.18) | (0.15) | (0.37) | (0.25) | (0.30) | |
| [0.015] | [0.11] | [0.0435] | [0.12] | [0.41] | |
| Avg sachets (t-1) | 0.36*** | 0.36*** | 0.36*** | 0.29*** | 0.38*** |
| (0.032) | (0.036) | (0.069) | (0.034) | (0.043) | |
| Loyalty card × Avg sachets (t-1) | −0.0090 | −0.025 | −0.0097 | 0.011 | 0.044 |
| (0.044) | (0.041) | (0.089) | (0.044) | (0.091) | |
| [0.96] | [0.91] | [0.96] | [0.96] | [0.86] | |
| Post-promo | 0.48** | ||||
| (0.19) | |||||
| Loyalty card × Post-promo | 1.12*** | ||||
| (0.36) | |||||
| [0.23] | |||||
| …× Post-period 2 | −0.49** | −0.39*** | −0.60* | −0.13 | −1.03** |
| (0.20) | (0.13) | (0.35) | (0.19) | (0.50) | |
| [0.29] | [0.53] | [0.39] | [0.77] | [0.34] | |
| …× Post-period 3 | −0.41* | −0.12 | −0.70*** | −0.17 | −0.66* |
| (0.22) | (0.33) | (0.21) | (0.30) | (0.34) | |
| [0.40] | [0.86] | [0.23] | [0.67] | [0.57] | |
| …× Post-period 4 | −0.58** | −0.28 | −0.91** | −0.28 | −0.96* |
| (0.26) | (0.18) | (0.45) | (0.22) | (0.53) | |
| [0.20] | [0.61] | [0.14] | [0.52] | [0.35] | |
| …× Post-period 5 | −0.56*** | −0.45** | −0.68*** | −0.28 | −0.91** |
| (0.15) | (0.18) | (0.22) | (0.23) | (0.36) | |
| [0.18] | [0.43] | [0.28] | [0.53] | [0.39] | |
| …× Post-period 6 | −0.38 | 0.072 | −0.85*** | −0.016 | −0.89** |
| (0.28) | (0.34) | (0.28) | (0.38) | (0.44) | |
| [0.35] | [0.90] | [0.14] | [0.98] | [0.37] | |
| …× Post-period 7 | −0.83*** | −0.77*** | −0.91*** | −0.38* | −1.48*** |
| (0.15) | (0.14) | (0.28) | (0.21) | (0.33) | |
| [0.048] | [0.17] | [0.12] | [0.36] | [0.13] | |
| Male won loyalty card | 0.012 | 0.036 | 0.019 | −0.14** | 0.43 |
| (0.12) | (0.12) | (0.21) | (0.065) | (0.26) | |
| [0.98] | [0.97] | [0.98] | [0.75] | [0.82] | |
| Village FE | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Observations | 13,994 | 7,683 | 6,311 | 9,672 | 6,349 |
| Number of voucher | 481 | 263 | 218 | 336 | 145 |
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Robust standard errors clustered by village in parentheses. Randomization Inference-based p-values reported in []. Unreported controls include week and week squared and dummies for post-promo periods, other promotion prices, couple at promotion, and male at promotion.