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. 2018 Dec 4;8:17614. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-36011-0

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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State transition for the Poisson hidden Markov models from the time series indexed each 15 min. (a) Transition probability matrix. Values in each cell represent average probability computed on the total sample of patients. Diagonal of the matrix represents the probabilities of not changing in the next period. Cells with zero probability represent a value < 0.005. (b) State transition diagram. Arrows indicate the probability of transition from each state to other ones: thicker arrows indicate higher probability; no arrow indicates the probability is zero (or near zero).