Table 2. The calendar date ranges or periods (in calendar years) determined for selected Dates, Spans, and Boundaries in the Draper-Spang-Mantle site sequence model shown in Fig. 4 and compared with a rerun of this model but using (i) the Charcoal Plus Outlier model (30, 37) and (ii) after excluding the six minor possible outliers noted in the Supplementary Materials and fig. S5.
This rerun model runs with typical values of Amodel of 86.5 and Aoverall of 84 each above the satisfactory threshold value of 60. Calendar dates CE in regular font, calendar years (duration) in italics.
| Figure 4 model | Rerun revised model | |||
| 68.2% hpd | 95.4% hpd | 68.2% hpd | 95.4% hpd | |
| Start Draper | 1523–1539 | 1517–1551 | 1522–1540 | 1515–1553 |
| Date Draper | 1528–1544 | 1523–1555 | 1527–1544 | 1521–1557 |
| Span Draper | 1–13 | 0–25 | 1–13 | 0–26 |
|
Mid end Draper |
1532–1549 | 1528–1559 | 1531–1550 | 1527–1561 |
|
Duration end Draper |
0–5 | 0–15 | 0–5 | 0–16 |
|
Mid start Spang |
1543–1566 | 1535–1580 | 1543–1567 | 1535–1581 |
|
Duration start Spang |
0–6 | 0–19 | 0–6 | 0–19 |
| Date Spang | 1551–1577 | 1543–1591 | 1551–1578 | 1542–1592 |
| Span Spang | 4–23 | 1–38 | 4–23 | 1–39 |
|
Mid end Spang |
1564–1590 | 1551–1599 | 1564–1591 | 1550–1600 |
|
Duration end Spang |
0–7 | 0–23 | 0–7 | 0–23 |
|
Mid start Mantle |
1593–1608 | 1580–1614 | 1593–1608 | 1579–1615 |
|
Duration start Mantle |
0–7 | 0–23 | 0–6 | 0–21 |
| Date Mantle | 1599–1614 | 1587–1623 | 1599–1614 | 1586–1623 |
| Span Mantle | 2–19 | 0–37 | 1–17 | 0–38 |
| End Mantle | 1604–1618 | 1599–1631 | 1604–1618 | 1596–1631 |