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. 2018 Dec 5;4(12):eaav0280. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aav0280

Table 2. The calendar date ranges or periods (in calendar years) determined for selected Dates, Spans, and Boundaries in the Draper-Spang-Mantle site sequence model shown in Fig. 4 and compared with a rerun of this model but using (i) the Charcoal Plus Outlier model (30, 37) and (ii) after excluding the six minor possible outliers noted in the Supplementary Materials and fig. S5.

This rerun model runs with typical values of Amodel of 86.5 and Aoverall of 84 each above the satisfactory threshold value of 60. Calendar dates CE in regular font, calendar years (duration) in italics.

Figure 4 model Rerun revised model
68.2% hpd 95.4% hpd 68.2% hpd 95.4% hpd
Start Draper 1523–1539 1517–1551 1522–1540 1515–1553
Date Draper 1528–1544 1523–1555 1527–1544 1521–1557
Span Draper 1–13 0–25 1–13 0–26
Mid end
Draper
1532–1549 1528–1559 1531–1550 1527–1561
Duration end
Draper
0–5 0–15 0–5 0–16
Mid start
Spang
1543–1566 1535–1580 1543–1567 1535–1581
Duration
start
Spang
0–6 0–19 0–6 0–19
Date Spang 1551–1577 1543–1591 1551–1578 1542–1592
Span Spang 4–23 1–38 4–23 1–39
Mid end
Spang
1564–1590 1551–1599 1564–1591 1550–1600
Duration end
Spang
0–7 0–23 0–7 0–23
Mid start
Mantle
1593–1608 1580–1614 1593–1608 1579–1615
Duration
start
Mantle
0–7 0–23 0–6 0–21
Date Mantle 1599–1614 1587–1623 1599–1614 1586–1623
Span Mantle 2–19 0–37 1–17 0–38
End Mantle 1604–1618 1599–1631 1604–1618 1596–1631