Table S3.
Model selection using BIC criterion, and estimated group proportions
| Estimated group proportionsa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group numbers | BICb | Polynomial order of each group trajectoryc | Group 1 (%) | Group 2 (%) | Group 3 (%) | Group 4 (%) | Group 5 (%) |
| 1 | −18,540 | 2 | 100 | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | −16,263 | 2, 3 | 39.0 | 61.0 | – | – | – |
| 3 | −15,939 | 2, 1, 3 | 5.8 | 37.7 | 56.5 | – | – |
| 4 | −15,640 | 2, 3, 0, 3 | 5.8 | 11.0 | 33.0 | 50.2 | – |
| 5 | −15,539 | 1, 3, 3, 2, 3 | 4.7 | 19.3 | 9.2 | 31.5 | 35.3 |
Notes:
a
Estimated group proportions should exceed 5.0%.
b
BIC (for the total number of participants) was calculated as BIC=2*log(L)–k*log(N), where L is the maximal value of the model’s likelihood function, k represents the number of model parameter, and N the sample size.3 The model with the highest (least negative) BIC value is preferred.
c
Trajectory shapes: 0, constant; 1, linear; 2, quadratic; and 3, cubic.
Abbreviation: BIC, Bayesian Information Criterion.