Table 6.
Simulations derived from discrete-time event history models, assigning characteristics of U.S. and Italian couples to generate estimates of separation within five years of birth, by country
| 1. United States as Reference | Norway | Sweden | United Kingdom | Austria | France | Italy | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted Probabilities | |||||||
| Baseline (all own characteristics) | .13 | .07 | .14 | .13 | .13 | .06 | .06 |
| Education | .14 | .09 | .13 | .12 | .13 | .06 | .06 |
| Age | .15 | .09 | .16 | .13 | .14 | .06 | .07 |
| Family complexity | .14 | .08 | .14 | .12 | .15 | .11 | .07 |
| All the above | .18 | .12 | .16 | .13 | .18 | .13 | .09 |
| Percentage Change in Predicted Probabilities | |||||||
| Education | 12.7 | 28.5 | −2.7 | −3.0 | 4.6 | 14.2 | 1.9 |
| Age | 17.8 | 21.0 | 18.7 | 4.2 | 14.4 | 3.8 | 22.4 |
| Family complexity | 7.9 | 8.6 | 0.4 | −2.7 | 20.8 | 94.8 | 22.5 |
| All the above | 42.7 | 68.0 | 16.0 | −1.7 | 43.9 | 129.5 | 52.4 |
| 2. Italy as Reference | United States | Norway | Sweden | United Kingdom | Austria | France | Spain |
|
| |||||||
| Predicted Probabilities | |||||||
| Baseline (all own characteristics) | .24 | .13 | .07 | .14 | .13 | .13 | .06 |
| Education | .26 | .15 | .12 | .12 | .13 | .13 | .06 |
| Age | .19 | .11 | .07 | .11 | .13 | .11 | .05 |
| Family complexity | .22 | .11 | .07 | .13 | .13 | .11 | .05 |
| All the above | .18 | .11 | .10 | .09 | .13 | .10 | .05 |
| Percentage Change in Predicted Probabilities | |||||||
| Education | 5.4 | 14.8 | 60.5 | −10.4 | −0.9 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| Age | −20.4 | −10.3 | −4.3 | −20.7 | 4.4 | −14.9 | −10.0 |
| Family complexity | −11.3 | −13.2 | −7.5 | −5.1 | 1.3 | −12.7 | −10.3 |
| All the above | −25.6 | −10.5 | 42.5 | −32.7 | 4.8 | −21.7 | −17.1 |
Notes: Predicted probabilities of separation are derived from Model 2 (with all controls) in Table 4, allowing union duration to vary with month, varying key covariates, and holding others constant. Baseline estimates hold all covariates at their country-specific weighted means. Simulations in subsequent rows assign U.S. (panel 1) and Italian (panel 2) means on specified characteristics. Monthly conditional probabilities of separation are multiplied to generate estimated proportions separating within five years.
Source: Harmonized Histories and the 2006–2010 and 2011–2013 National Survey of Family Growth (women only, under 45 years). Sample is limited to couples with a first child together within 10 years of interview.