Table 4. Diagnostic parameters for various risk score cut-offs predicting MTX insufficient response (3 months DAS28>3.2) in the derivation cohort.

Cut-off	Probability (%)*	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)
≥1	10	99	27	58	96
≥2	20	97	38	61	93
≥3	33	86	63	70	82
≥4	44	71	72	72	71
≥5	58	47	85	76	62
≥6	56	47	85	76	62
≥7	85	11	99	92	53
≥8	80	14	98	88	53

Risk scores were calculated in each patient in the derivation cohort.

*mean probability of all patients with the specific risk score for insufficient response (3 months DAS28>3.2).

MTX, methotrexate; DAS, disease activity score; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value.