Table 2.
Statistics for the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis of the historical demography of the southern right whale
| A. | Prior | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5 | Scenario 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Migration rate since secondary contact (MC) | ||||
| MC SA to IP | 0.001–0.50 | – | 0.0281 (0.0087, 0.2068) | 0.0114 (0.0023, 0.4259) |
| MC IP to SA | 0.001–0.50 | – | 0.0008 (0.0002, 0.0825) | 0.0128 (0.0015, 0.4349) |
| Migration rate since whaling era (MW) | ||||
| MW SA to IP | 0.001–0.50 | 0.0164 (0.0034, 0.0717) | – | 0.0025 (0.0002, 0.0830) |
| MW IP to SA | 0.001–0.50 | 0.0235 (0.0052, 0.2091) | – | 0.0025 (0.0013, 0.0718) |
| Effective population sizes (Ne) | ||||
| HIST Ne SA | 1000–100,000 | 3874 (1057, 80, 909) | 3,916 (1131, 85,781) | 3188 (920, 65,783) |
| HIST Ne IP | 1000–100,000 | 4635 (1275, 92,942) | 3,880 (1131, 82,748) | 3908 (973, 88,744) |
| BOT Ne SA | 20–2000 | 128 (34, 2447) | 90 (23, 2216) | 74 (21, 1430) |
| BOT Ne IP | 20–2000 | 88 (22, 1936) | 88 (23, 1743) | 111 (29, 1998) |
| REC Ne SA | 1000–20,000 | 1358 (466, 9433) | 888 (344, 8126) | 2494 (706, 15,728) |
| REC Ne IP | 100–20,000 | 4447 (1179, 24,463) | 2008 (814, 10,436) | 2013 (660, 12,851) |
| Timing (generations) | ||||
| CONTACT | 10–100,000 | Fixed | 38 (12, 962) | 74 (20, 2187) |
| DIVERGENCE | 2000–200,000 | 189,621 (122,048, 200,959) | 194,697 (103,040, 209,241) | 198,944 (109,871, 211,017) |
| B. | Scenario 4 | Scenario 5 | Scenario 6 | |
| Posterior model probability | 0.0048 | 0.5614 | 0.4338 | |
| Bayes factor | 117.14 | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Posterior predictive checks | 6/9 | 7/9 | 7/9 |
A. Prior log-uniform distributions used for ABC analysis and posterior values obtained for the South Atlantic (SA) and Indo-Pacific (IP) ocean basins under Scenarios 4–6. Posterior mode and 95% HPDs are reported for migration rates (MC: constant migration rate since secondary contact; MW: migration rate since whaling era), effective population sizes (Ne) and time in generations since secondary contact (CONTACT) and population divergence (DIVERGENCE). Effective population sizes are shown schematically in Fig. 2 and are divided into historical or pre-whaling (HIST Ne), bottleneck (BOT Ne) and recovery (REC Ne). B. Posterior support, as shown by the posterior model probability, Bayes factor (relative to Scenario 5), and the number of posterior predictive summary statistics that encompassed the observed value