Table 5. Longitudinal model stratified by epidemic years and interepidemic years.
| Parameter | Annual Transmission Intensity | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 2 (Epidemic) n = 4,284 | Model 3 (Interepidemic) n = 2,856 | ||||||||
| IRR | 95% CI | z | FDR p-value | IRR | 95% CI | z | FDR p-value | ||
| Social & structural factors | Household size | 0.750 | [0.382–1.472] | -0.84 | 0.55 | 0.807 | [0.448–1.451] | -0.72 | 0.61 |
| Electricity | 0.903 | [0.734–1.110] | -0.97 | 0.50 | 1.111 | [0.897–1.377] | 0.96 | 0.50 | |
| Water | 0.985 | [0.971–0.999] | -2.15 | 0.10 | 1.009 | [0.996–1.022] | 1.35 | 0.33 | |
| Garbage | 0.991 | [0.953–1.032] | -0.43 | 0.75 | 0.954** | [0.921–0.988] | -2.65 | 0.03 | |
| Sewage | 1.000 | [0.996–1.003] | -0.14 | 0.92 | 0.996 | [0.992–1.000] | -2.16 | 0.10 | |
| Literacy (m) | 1.066 | [0.941–1.208] | 1.00 | 0.49 | 1.119 | [0.972–1.287] | 1.56 | 0.26 | |
| Literacy (f) | 0.955 | [0.834–1.092] | -0.68 | 0.63 | 0.930 | [0.800–1.080] | -0.95 | 0.50 | |
| Income | 0.959 | [0.883–1.042] | -0.99 | 0.50 | 0.893*** | [0.844–0.946] | -3.89 | <0.01 | |
| Pop. Density | 0.978 | [0.955–1.002] | -1.79 | 0.19 | 0.987 | [0.968–1.007] | -1.23 | 0.39 | |
| Subnormal (%) | 1.001 | [0.993–1.010] | 0.26 | 0.85 | 0.997 | [0.988–1.005] | -0.81 | 0.56 | |
| Homicides | 1.076*** | [1.057–1.094] | 8.24 | <0.01 | 1.044*** | [1.030–1.057] | 6.45 | <0.01 | |
| Strategic Points | Construction | 0.995 | [0.980–1.011] | -0.59 | 0.67 | 1.019 | [0.998–1.040] | 1.81 | 0.19 |
| Fabrication | 1.008 | [0.983–1.033] | 0.61 | 0.66 | 1.006 | [0.976–1.038] | 0.40 | 0.76 | |
| Recyclables | 1.019 | [0.996–1.042] | 1.58 | 0.26 | 1.019 | [0.996–1.043] | 1.59 | 0.26 | |
| Scrapyard | 1.022 | [1.002–1.042] | 2.14 | 0.10 | 1.028 | [1.003–1.053] | 2.22 | 0.09 | |
| Tires | 1.033*** | [1.016–1.051] | 3.73 | <0.01 | 1.017 | [0.995–1.040] | 1.51 | 0.28 | |
| Other | 0.983 | [0.960–1.006] | -1.45 | 0.30 | 0.979 | [0.959–0.999] | -2.01 | 0.13 | |
| Total | 0.996 | [0.991–1.000] | -1.76 | 0.20 | 1.001 | [0.996–1.006] | 0.29 | 0.83 | |
|
LIA/ LIRAa |
Alert | 1.194** | [1.042–1.368] | 2.55 | 0.04 | 0.944 | [0.791–1.128] | -0.63 | 0.65 |
| Risk | 1.344 | [0.978–1.849] | 1.82 | 0.19 | 1.541 | [0.727–3.263] | 1.13 | 0.43 | |
| Climate | Rainfall (sum) | 1.006*** | [1.005–1.007] | 11.71 | <0.01 | 0.999 | [0.999–1.000] | -1.57 | 0.26 |
| Rainfall (deviation) | 0.994*** | [0.993–0.995] | -10.48 | <0.01 | 1.003*** | [1.002–1.004] | 6.30 | <0.01 | |
| Temperature | 1.641*** | [1.368–1.970] | 5.32 | <0.01 | 2.245*** | [1.779–2.833] | 6.81 | <0.01 | |
| Scale | High Month | 3.672*** | [3.219–4.189] | 19.36 | <0.01 | 2.944*** | [2.692–3.219] | 23.70 | <0.01 |
Results expressed as incidence rate ratios (IRR) associated with a unit change in covariate value. Models adjusted for multiple testing using the false discovery rate (FDR). Significance is represented as:
** = 0.05
*** = 0.01