Table 2.
Estimates of LTF, death and combined attrition (LTF and death) among adult PLHIV initiating antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania 2004 to 2015 (N = 305,443)
| All | CD4 < 50 | CD4 50 to 99 | CD4 100 to 199 | CD4 ≥ 200 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Six months | Twelve months | Six months | Twelve months | Six months | Twelve months | Six months | Twelve months | Six months | Twelve months | |||||||||||
| Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | Est. | 95% CI | |
| Loss to follow‐up | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Overall | 15.4 | 15.2 to 15.5 | 20.3 | 20.1 to 20.4 | 20.1 | 19.7 to 20.5 | 25.4 | 25.0 to 25.8 | 16.7 | 16.4 to 17.1 | 21.6 | 21.2 to 22.0 | 13.5 | 13.3 to 13.7 | 18.3 | 18.0 to 18.5 | 14.4 | 14.2 to 14.6 | 19.2 | 19.0 to 19.4 |
| Female | 14.4 | 14.3 to 14.6 | 19.1 | 18.9 to 19.3 | 19.2 | 18.8 to 19.7 | 24.3 | 23.8 to 24.9 | 15.5 | 15.1 to 16.0 | 20.2 | 19.7 to 20.7 | 12.6 | 12.3 to 12.9 | 17.0 | 16.7 to 17.4 | 13.8 | 13.6 to 14.1 | 18.5 | 18.2 to 18.7 |
| Male | 17.1 | 16.8 to 17.3 | 22.4 | 22.1 to 22.6 | 21.2 | 20.7 to 21.8 | 26.8 | 26.2 to 27.4 | 18.5 | 17.9 to 19.1 | 23.6 | 23.0 to 24.3 | 15.1 | 14.7 to 15.5 | 20.5 | 20.0 to 20.9 | 15.8 | 15.4 to 16.1 | 20.9 | 20.5 to 21.4 |
| Country | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ethiopia | 12.3 | 12.0 to 12.5 | 17.6 | 17.3 to 17.9 | 18.6 | 17.9 to 19.4 | 25.1 | 24.2 to 25.9 | 14.7 | 14.1 to 15.3 | 20.3 | 19.6 to 21.0 | 10.6 | 10.2 to 11.0 | 15.7 | 15.2 to 16.1 | 9.3 | 8.9 to 9.8 | 14.3 | 13.8 to 14.8 |
| Kenya | 14.4 | 14.2 to 14.7 | 18.7 | 18.4 to 18.9 | 18.3 | 17.7 to 18.9 | 23.1 | 22.4 to 23.8 | 16.1 | 15.4 to 16.8 | 20.0 | 19.2 to 20.7 | 13.6 | 13.2 to 14.0 | 17.8 | 17.3 to 18.3 | 12.8 | 12.5 to 13.2 | 17.0 | 16.6 to 17.4 |
| Mozambique | 19.9 | 19.7 to 20.2 | 25.6 | 25.3 to 25.9 | 24.7 | 24.0 to 25.5 | 30.3 | 29.5 to 31.1 | 20.7 | 20.0 to 21.5 | 26.2 | 25.4 to 27.0 | 17.0 | 16.6 to 17.5 | 22.5 | 22.0 to 23.1 | 20.1 | 19.7 to 20.5 | 26.1 | 25.7 to 26.6 |
| Tanzania | 12.9 | 12.6 to 13.2 | 16.7 | 16.3 to 17.0 | 18.5 | 17.7 to 19.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 to 23.6 | 14.4 | 13.5 to 15.3 | 18.3 | 17.3 to 19.3 | 11.7 | 11.1 to 12.3 | 15.5 | 14.9 to 16.2 | 10.8 | 10.4 to 11.3 | 14.4 | 13.9 to 14.9 |
| Age at enrolment (years) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 to 19 | 23.7 | 22.7 to 24.7 | 30.3 | 29.2 to 31.4 | 21.5 | 19.0 to 24.3 | 27.7 | 24.9 to 30.8 | 20.8 | 17.9 to 24.1 | 26.7 | 23.5 to 30.3 | 20.0 | 18.1 to 22.0 | 26.8 | 24.7 to 29.1 | 26.2 | 24.8 to 27.5 | 32.9 | 31.4 to 34.4 |
| 20 to 29 | 18.1 | 17.8 to 18.3 | 23.9 | 23.6 to 24.2 | 21.9 | 21.2 to 22.7 | 28.3 | 27.5 to 29.2 | 18.5 | 17.8 to 19.3 | 24.2 | 23.4 to 25.1 | 16.1 | 15.7 to 16.6 | 21.9 | 21.3 to 22.4 | 17.9 | 17.5 to 18.3 | 23.6 | 23.2 to 24.1 |
| 30 to 39 | 14.5 | 14.3 to 14.7 | 19.3 | 19.1 to 19.6 | 19.7 | 19.1 to 20.3 | 24.9 | 24.3 to 25.6 | 16.6 | 16.0 to 17.1 | 21.4 | 20.8 to 22.1 | 12.7 | 12.4 to 13.1 | 17.4 | 17.0 to 17.8 | 12.8 | 12.5 to 13.1 | 17.5 | 17.1 to 17.9 |
| 40 to 49 | 13.3 | 13.0 to 13.6 | 17.3 | 17.0 to 17.6 | 19.0 | 18.3 to 19.8 | 23.4 | 22.6 to 24.3 | 15.6 | 14.9 to 16.4 | 19.8 | 19.0 to 20.6 | 11.3 | 10.9 to 11.8 | 15.4 | 14.8 to 15.9 | 11.2 | 10.8 to 11.7 | 15.1 | 14.6 to 15.6 |
| 50+ | 13.4 | 13.0 to 13.8 | 17.4 | 16.9 to 17.8 | 19.0 | 17.9 to 20.2 | 23.4 | 22.2 to 24.8 | 14.8 | 13.8 to 15.9 | 19.2 | 18.1 to 20.4 | 13.1 | 12.4 to 13.7 | 17.1 | 16.4 to 17.9 | 11.3 | 10.8 to 11.9 | 14.8 | 14.2 to 15.5 |
| Death | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Overall | 4.3 | 4.2 to 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 to 5.2 | 9.4 | 9.1 to 9.7 | 10.9 | 10.6 to 11.2 | 6.0 | 5.8 to 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.0 to 7.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 to 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 to 2.7 |
| Female | 3.4 | 3.4 to 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 to 4.2 | 8.3 | 7.9 to 8.6 | 9.5 | 9.1 to 9.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 to 5.4 | 6.2 | 5.9 to 6.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 to 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 to 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 to 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 to 2.1 |
| Male | 5.8 | 5.6 to 5.9 | 6.9 | 6.7 to 7.1 | 10.9 | 10.5 to 11.3 | 12.7 | 12.2 to 13.2 | 7.3 | 6.9 to 7.7 | 8.7 | 8.3 to 9.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 to 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 to 5.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 to 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 to 4.1 |
| Country | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ethiopia | 4.4 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 to 5.5 | 9.6 | 9.1 to 10.2 | 11.4 | 10.8 to 12.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 to 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.8 to 7.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 to 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 to 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 to 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 to 2.4 |
| Kenya | 2.5 | 2.4 to 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 to 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 to 6.2 | 7.0 | 6.6 to 7.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 to 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 to 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 to 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 to 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 to 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 to 1.3 |
| Mozambique | 4.3 | 4.2 to 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 to 5.4 | 9.5 | 9.0 to 10.1 | 11.1 | 10.5 to 11.7 | 6.1 | 5.7 to 6.6 | 7.4 | 6.9 to 7.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 to 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 to 4.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 to 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 to 3.4 |
| Tanzania | 7.3 | 7.1 to 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.2 to 8.7 | 15.5 | 14.7 to 16.3 | 17.2 | 16.3 to 18.1 | 9.3 | 8.6 to 10.1 | 10.7 | 10.0 to 11.6 | 5.9 | 5.5 to 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 to 7.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 to 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 to 5.2 |
| Age at enrolment (years) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 to 19 | 3.5 | 3.0 to 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 to 4.8 | 8.5 | 6.8 to 10.6 | 9.9 | 8.0 to 12.2 | 5.7 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 to 9.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 to 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 to 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 to 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 to 3.0 |
| 20 to 29 | 3.7 | 3.6 to 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 to 4.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 to 9.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 to 10.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 to 5.9 | 6.6 | 6.1 to 7.1 | 3.3 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 to 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 to 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 to 2.4 |
| 30 to 39 | 4.4 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 to 5.3 | 9.4 | 9.0 to 9.9 | 11.0 | 10.5 to 11.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 to 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.7 to 7.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 to 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 to 4.44 | 1.9 | 1.8 to 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 to 2.6 |
| 40 to 49 | 4.6 | 4.4 to 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 to 5.7 | 9.6 | 9.1 to 10.2 | 11.0 | 10.4 to 11.7 | 6.4 | 5.9 to 6.9 | 7.8 | 7.3 to 8.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 to 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 to 4.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 to 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 to 3.1 |
| 50+ | 5.0 | 4.8 to 5.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 to 6.3 | 11.5 | 10.6 to 12.5 | 12.8 | 11.8 to 13.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 to 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.2 to 8.8 | 4.1 | 3.7 to 4.5 | 5.3 | 4.9 to 5.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 to 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 to 4.1 |
| Attrition | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Overall | 19.0 | 18.9 to 19.2 | 24.4 | 24.2 to 24.5 | 27.7 | 27.3 to 28.1 | 33.6 | 33.2 to 34.0 | 21.8 | 21.4 to 22.2 | 27.3 | 26.9 to 27.7 | 16.6 | 16.4 to 16.8 | 21.8 | 21.6 to 22.1 | 16.2 | 16.0 to 16.4 | 21.3 | 21.1 to 21.6 |
| Female | 17.4 | 17.2 to 17.6 | 22.5 | 22.3 to 22.7 | 26.0 | 25.5 to 26.5 | 31.6 | 31.1 to 32.2 | 19.9 | 19.4 to 20.4 | 25.2 | 24.6 to 25.7 | 15.2 | 14.9 to 15.5 | 20.1 | 19.8 to 20.4 | 15.2 | 15.0 to 15.5 | 20.1 | 19.8 to 20.4 |
| Male | 21.9 | 21.7 to 22.2 | 27.8 | 27.5 to 28.1 | 30.0 | 29.3 to 30.6 | 36.2 | 35.6 to 36.9 | 24.5 | 23.9 to 25.2 | 30.4 | 29.7 to 31.1 | 19.0 | 18.6 to 19.5 | 24.9 | 24.5 to 25.4 | 18.4 | 18.0 to 18.8 | 24.0 | 23.6 to 24.5 |
| Country | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ethiopia | 16.1 | 15.8 to 16.4 | 22.0 | 21.6 to 22.3 | 26.5 | 25.7 to 27.3 | 33.7 | 32.8 to 34.5 | 19.9 | 19.2 to 20.6 | 26.1 | 25.4 to 26.9 | 13.6 | 13.2 to 14.0 | 19.1 | 18.6 to 19.6 | 10.9 | 10.4 to 11.3 | 16.2 | 15.7 to 16.7 |
| Kenya | 16.6 | 16.4 to 16.9 | 21.2 | 20.9 to 21.5 | 23.2 | 22.6 to 23.9 | 28.6 | 27.9 to 29.3 | 19.4 | 18.7 to 20.1 | 23.9 | 23.1 to 24.7 | 15.6 | 15.1 to 16.1 | 20.1 | 19.6 to 20.6 | 13.7 | 13.3 to 14.0 | 18.0 | 17.6 to 18.3 |
| Mozambique | 23.4 | 23.1 to 23.7 | 29.6 | 29.3 to 29.9 | 32.0 | 31.3 to 32.9 | 38.2 | 37.3 to 39.0 | 25.6 | 24.9 to 26.4 | 31.7 | 30.9 to 32.6 | 20.1 | 19.6 to 20.6 | 26.1 | 25.6 to 26.6 | 22.1 | 21.7 to 22.5 | 28.5 | 28.0 to 28.9 |
| Tanzania | 19.3 | 19.0 to 19.7 | 23.8 | 23.4 to 24.2 | 31.4 | 30.4 to 32.4 | 36.1 | 35.1 to 37.2 | 22.4 | 21.4 to 23.5 | 27.2 | 26.1 to 28.3 | 16.9 | 16.3 to 17.5 | 21.5 | 20.8 to 22.2 | 14.5 | 14.0 to 15.0 | 18.6 | 18.0 to 19.2 |
| Age at enrolment (years) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 to 19 | 26.4 | 25.4 to 27.4 | 33.3 | 32.2 to 34.4 | 28.3 | 25.5 to 31.2 | 35.0 | 32.0 to 38.1 | 25.4 | 22.3 to 28.8 | 31.9 | 28.5 to 35.7 | 22.9 | 20.9 to 25.0 | 30.0 | 27.8 to 32.3 | 27.5 | 26.2 to 28.9 | 34.5 | 33.1 to 36.1 |
| 20 to 29 | 21.1 | 20.8 to 21.4 | 27.3 | 27.0 to 27.6 | 28.7 | 27.9 to 29.5 | 35.6 | 34.8 to 36.5 | 23.0 | 22.2 to 23.8 | 29.2 | 28.3 to 30.1 | 18.9 | 18.4 to 19.4 | 25.0 | 24.4 to 25.5 | 19.4 | 19.0 to 19.8 | 25.3 | 24.9 to 25.8 |
| 30 to 39 | 18.3 | 18.1 to 18.5 | 23.6 | 23.3 to 23.8 | 27.4 | 26.7 to 28.0 | 33.3 | 32.6 to 33.9 | 21.6 | 21.0 to 22.2 | 27.1 | 26.4 to 27.8 | 15.8 | 15.4 to 16.2 | 20.9 | 20.5 to 21.3 | 14.5 | 14.1 to 14.8 | 19.5 | 19.1 to 19.9 |
| 40 to 49 | 17.3 | 17.0 to 17.6 | 22.0 | 21.6 to 22.3 | 27.0 | 26.2 to 27.8 | 32.0 | 31.1 to 32.9 | 21.1 | 20.3 to 21.9 | 26.1 | 25.2 to 27.0 | 14.6 | 14.1 to 15.1 | 19.2 | 18.6 to 19.7 | 13.2 | 12.8 to 13.7 | 17.6 | 17.1 to 18.1 |
| 50+ | 17.8 | 17.4 to 18.2 | 22.4 | 22.0 to 22.9 | 28.5 | 27.2 to 29.8 | 33.4 | 32.0 to 34.8 | 20.6 | 19.5 to 21.8 | 25.7 | 24.4 to 27.0 | 16.6 | 15.9 to 17.4 | 21.6 | 20.8 to 22.4 | 14.0 | 13.4 to 14.6 | 18.0 | 17.4 to 18.7 |
LTF, loss to follow‐up; PLHIV, people living with HIV.