Table 4. The calculation of apparent prevalence and apparent incidence and the tracking of the animals in the next testing in bi-annually phase for three farms (2004–2010).
Year | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Test phase | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
Herd A | ||||||||||||||
Total positive cows a | 14 | 25 | 34 | 28 | 34 | 32 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
Animals tested | 315 | 330 | 364 | 349 | 354 | 364 | 338 | 332 | 337 | 347 | 341 | 347 | 296 | 239 |
Apparent prevalence | 4.4 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
New casesb | 14 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cow-years at riskc | 239 | 293 | 284 | 272 | 276 | 280 | 198 | |||||||
Apparent incidenced | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 | |||||||
Herd B | ||||||||||||||
Total positive cows | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Animals tested | 106 | 122 | 128 | 128 | 113 | 113 | 115 | 114 | 111 | 109 | 113 | 109 | 82 | 1 |
Apparent prevalence | 8.5 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
New cases | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cow-years at risk | 72 | 99 | 95 | 94 | 93 | 83 | 37 | |||||||
Apparent incidence | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0 | |||||||
Herd C | ||||||||||||||
Total positive cows | 0 | 17 | 26 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
Animals tested | 0 | 121 | 145 | 149 | 178 | 161 | 145 | 155 | 157 | 145 | 142 | 117 | 102 | 0 |
Apparent prevalence | NA | 14.0 | 17.9 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | NA |
New cases | 0 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Cow-years at risk | 13 | 114 | 123 | 110 | 117 | 108 | 33 | |||||||
Apparent incidence | 1.27 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
aTest positive cows by considering enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing, fecal testing and tissue testing.
bNumber of cows tested positive for the first time
cObservation time (in years) from entry in the study (at the first testing) until each cow tested positive or left the study (by culling, i.e. the infection status of the cow is right censored)
dNew cases per year / cow-years at risk