Table 4.

Posterior medians, 95% Bayesian credible intervals and cross-validation performance metrics of the restricted spatial regression, geostatistical regression, geographically weighted regression and non-spatial land-use regression models with the best predictive ability of PM_2.5 concentrations.

	PM2.5
	Restricted geostatistical regression	Geostatistical regression	Land-use regression	Geographically weighted regression
Covariate	Median (2.5%, 97.5%)	Median (2.5%, 97.5%)	Median (2.5%, 97.5%)	Median (2.5%, 97.5%)
Intercept	2.51 (2.51, 2.52)	2.29 (2.06, 2.50)	2.58 (2.52, 2.63)	2.64 (2.59, 2.71)
AOD	–	–	0.14 (0.12, 0.16)	0.13 (0.08, 0.16)
TCD	–	–	–	−0.00 (−0.01, 0.01)
DEM	−0.15 (−0.16, −0.14)	−0.13 (−0.15, −0.11)	−0.10 (−0.13, −0.07)	−0.10 (−0.13, −0.05)
IMP	0.04 (0.03, 0.05)	0.03 (0.02, 0.05)	–	0.01 (0.00, 0.02)
ESM	–	0.01 (0.00, 0.03)	0.03 (0.00, 0.05)	0.01 (0.00, 0.02)
NTL	–	0.05 (0.03, 0.07)	0.07 (0.04, 0.10)	0.07 (0.04, 0.09)
LST	0.11 (0.10, 0.13)	–	0.11 (0.08, 0.15)	0.07 (−0.01, 0.17)
NDVI	–	–	0.12 (0.09, 0.14)	0.06 (0.04, 0.08)
SHUM	0.02 (0.01, 0.04)	–	−0.04 (−0.08, −0.01)	−0.08 (−0.11, −0.03)
PREC	–	–	0.05(0.03, 0.07)	0.03 (0.01, 0.05)
WS	−0.05 (−0.06, −0.04)	−0.05 (−0.08, −0.02)	–	−0.01 (−0.03, 0.01)
DISS	0.21 (0.20, 0.23)	0.15 (0.06, 0.24)	0.16 (0.13, 0.18)	0.06 (0.02, 0.12)
RD	–	–	−0.02 (−0.04, 0.00)	−0.01 (−0.02, 0.00)
DISR	–	–	0.06 (0.04, 0.08)	0.03 (0.01, 0.04)
LC
LC2	–	–	−0.03 (−0.09, 0.02)	−0.05 (−0.09, −0.01)
LC3	–	–	−0.08 (−0.17, 0.02)	−0.05 (−0.10, −0.01)
LC4	–	–	−0.28 (−0.41, −0.16)	−0.17 (−0.25, −0.10)
a${\sigma }_{ϵ}^2$	0.02 (0.02, 0.03)	0.03 (0.02, 0.03)	0.09 (0.08, 0.10)	0.03
b${\sigma }_w^2$	0.18 (0.12, 0.29)	0.18 (0.12, 0.28)	–	–
cr (km)	588.6 (445.5, 807.5)	698.1 (522.2, 964.4)	–	–
dMAE	0.15	0.14	0.23	0.17
eMAPE	0.06	0.06	0.10	0.07
fRMSE	0.21	0.20	0.30	0.24
gR2	0.77	0.78	0.50	0.69

^a${\sigma }_{ϵ}^2$ - variance of the random error.

^b${\sigma }_w^2$ - variance of the spatial process.

^cr - range (the distance at which the spatial variance becomes less than 10%).

^dMAE - mean absolute error.

^eMAPE - mean absolute prediction error.

^fRMSE - root mean squared error.

^gR² - coefficient of determination.