Table 2.
Average number of cumulative new HIV infections among African American women over 10-year period and mean difference in the number of transmissions by scenario
| Scenarios varying key parameters related to mass incarceration | Incarceration (status quo) scenario (N, 95% Simulation Interval [SI]) | Mean difference (status quo- no incarceration scenario)a N, % |
|---|---|---|
| Male duration of high risk behavior post-release | ||
| 3 months | 1607 (1408-1804) | − 25 (− 1.6%) |
| 6 months (referent) | 1641 (1421-1881) | 9 (0.5%) |
| 24 months | 2081 (1751-2429) | 449 (21.6%) |
| Female duration of high risk behavior | ||
| 3 months | 1639 (1394-1874) | 7 (0.4%) |
| 6 months (referent) | 1641 (1421-1881) | 9 (0.5%) |
| 24 months | 1673 (1426-1879) | 41 (2.5%) |
| Female proportion engaging in high risk behavior | ||
| 0% | 1652 (1426-1923) | 20 (1.2%) |
| 40–60% (referent) | 1641 (1421-1881) | 9 (0.5%) |
| 100% | 1652 (1452-1879) | 20 (1.2%) |
| ART coverage post-release | ||
| 0% | 1767 (1518-1980) | 135 (7.6%) |
| 21% (referent) | 1641 (1421-1881) | 9 (0.5%) |
| 100% | 1613 (1386-1808) | − 19 (− 1.2%) |
| Relative risk (RR) of incarceration for HIV+ men vs. HIV-uninfected men | ||
| RR = 1 (referent) | 1641 (1421-1881) | 9 (0.5%) |
| RR = 2 | 1618 (1430-1848) | − 14 (− 0.9%) |
| RR = 5 | 1609 (1399-1822) | − 23 (− 1.4%) |
| Doubled HIV acquisition risk per unprotected sex act due to increased STI risk among high-risk agents | ||
| Not implemented (referent) | 1641 (1421-1881) | 9 (0.5%) |
| High-risk period only | 1658 (1439-1892) | 26 (1.6%) |
| Remainder of model run | 1816 (1619-2002) | 184 (10.1%) |
aScenario with no incarceration had 1632 (1427-1861) HIV transmissions