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. 2019 Jan;19(1):102–111. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30512-7

Figure 3.

Figure 3

Projected outcomes under different scenarios over the 2020–35 time period

Estimated outcomes per year presented with 95% PIs. (A) Human deaths from rabies (× 1000); (B) people initiating courses of PEP (× 1000); (C) vials of vaccine (× 1000) required for all 67 countries (top) and for selected countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Myanmar) according to the status quo (scenario 1), under improved PEP access (scenario 2, base case), and with improved access to PEP vaccines concomitant with mass dog vaccination (scenario 4b). The step changes correspond to the timing of improvements in access to PEP and introduction of dog vaccination programmes. Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Kenya are all phase 1 countries (implementation in 2020) in the Global Strategic Plan (appendix), whereas Myanmar is a phase 2 country (implementation in 2022). PEP=post-exposure prophylaxis. PI=prediction interval. S=scenario. Vax=vaccination.