Table.
Model results across all Gavi-67 countries projected over 2020–35 for the different scenarios
| Scenario 1: status quo (95% PI) | Scenario 2a, base case: improved PEP access (95% PI) | Scenario 2b: low variant (95% PI) | Scenario 2c: high variant (95% PI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabies deaths | 1·07 (0·852–1·32) | 0·576 (0·453–0·711) | 0·720 (0·561–0·885) | 0·425 (0·333–0·522) |
| Rabies deaths averted | 0·898 (0·704–1·11) | 1·39 (1·09–1·72) | 1·25 (0·971–1·54) | 1·55 (1·22–1·90) |
| DALYs | 52·1 (41·4–64·3) | 27·9 (21·9–34·5) | 34·9 (27·2–43·0) | 20·5 (16·1–25·2) |
| DALYs averted | 44·2 (34·7–54·6) | 68·0 (53·3–84·3) | 61·1 (47·6–75·5) | 75·7 (59·7–93·0) |
| Vaccine vials used | 73·5 (65·7–81·4) | 73·8 (66·1–81·6) | 62·2 (55·9–68·8) | 86·8 (77·7–96·2) |
| PEP courses initiated | 27·8 (24·6–31·0) | 45·2 (40·5–50·0) | 38·2 (34·4–42·3) | 52·8 (47·2–58·5) |
| PEP courses completed | 19·8 (17·3–22·2) | 35·1 (31·4–38·9) | 28·2 (25·3–31·2) | 43·4 (38·7–48·1) |
| Total cost (US$) | 1140 (1100–1260) | 1110 (1070–1220) | 935 (902–1030) | 1300 (1250–1430) |
Data are outcome in millions (95% PI), unless otherwise specified. Equivalent information on other scenarios (3 and 4a–c) is presented in the appendix. PI=prediction interval. PEP=post-exposure prophylaxis. DALYs=disability-adjusted life-years.