Table 4.
Hazard ratios for incident invasive breast cancer in women 50–69 years old, according to reduced Gail model (5-year risk) quintiles and area under the curve (AUC) for each model using continuous Gail scores
| Gail Subset (model) | Frequency in rank (%) | Risk score quintile group (5-year risk) | Test for trend (Q1 to Q5)a |
AUC (95% CI) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | D9 | D10 | ||||
| Age (M1) | 100 | Referent | 1.25 (0.95–1.64), p = 0.112 | 1.37 (1.03–1.83), p = 0.029 | 1.38 (1.06–1.81), p = 0.018 | 1.96 (1.51–2.56), p < 0.001 | 2.06 (1.52–2.79), p < 0.001 | 1.85 (1.33–2.58), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 23, p < 0.0001 | 0.56 (0.53–0.58) |
| + first live birth age (M2) | 62 | Referent | 0.94 (0.70–1.26), p = 0.686 | 1.18 (0.90–1.54), p = 0.229 | 1.38 (1.05–1.80), p = 0.02 | 1.64 (1.27–2.12), p < 0.001 | 1.50 (1.09–2.06), p = 0.012 | 1.77 (1.32–2.38), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 21, p < 0.0001 | 0.56 (0.54–0.58) |
| + age at menarche (M3) | 62 | Referent | 1.12 (0.83–1.51), p = 0.458 | 1.50 (1.13–1.98), p = 0.004 | 1.49 (1.13–1.97), p = 0.005 | 1.89 (1.44–2.47), p < 0.001 | 1.76 (1.28–2.43), p = 0.001 | 2.01 (1.48–2.73), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 26, p < 0.0001 | 0.56 (0.54–0.59) |
| + number of first-degree relatives (M4) | 84 | Referent | 1.22 (0.90–1.67), p = 0.200 | 1.43 (1.06–1.93), p = 0.019 | 2.05 (1.55–2.71), p < 0.001 | 2.15 (1.63–2.84), p < 0.001 | 1.82 (1.30–2.54), p < 0.001 | 2.49 (1.82–3.39), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 45, p < 0.0001 | 0.58 (0.56–0.60) |
| + number of biopsies (M5) | 79 | Referent | 1.06 (0.77–1.46), p = 0.730 | 1.69 (1.27–2.27), p < 0.001 | 1.91 (1.43–2.54), p < 0.001 | 2.28 (1.73–3.01), p < 0.001 | 2.22 (1.61–3.06), p < 0.001 | 2.34 (1.71–3.21), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 52, p < 0.0001 | 0.59 (0.56–0.61) |
| + had biopsy (M6) | 91 | Referent | 1.07 (0.78–1.48), p = 0.672 | 1.70 (1.27–2.27), p < 0.001 | 1.90 (1.43–2.52), p < 0.001 | 2.29 (1.74–3.02), p < 0.001 | 2.24 (1.63–3.08), p < 0.001 | 2.33 (1.70–3.20), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 52, p < 0.0001 | 0.59 (0.56–0.61) |
| + ethnicity (M7) | 98 | Referent | 1.07 (0.78–1.48), p = 0.672 | 1.70 (1.27–2.27), p < 0.001 | 1.90 (1.43–2.52), p < 0.001 | 2.29 (1.74–3.02), p < 0.001 | 2.24 (1.63–3.08), p < 0.001 | 2.33 (1.70–3.20), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 52, p < 0.0001 | 0.59 (0.56–0.61) |
| + had hyperplasia (full model) (M8) | 100 | Referent | 1.07 (0.78–1.48), p = 0.679 | 1.70 (1.27–2.27), p < 0.001 | 1.89 (1.42–2.52), p < 0.001 | 2.28 (1.73–3.02), p < 0.001 | 2.21 (1.61–3.05), p < 0.001 | 2.35 (1.72–3.23), p < 0.001 | χ2 = 52, p < 0.0001 | 0.59 (0.56–0.61) |
Values are shown as hazard ratio (95% CI), p value
CI confidence interval, D decile, Q quintile
a Tests for trend for each model across hazard functions for risk score groups Q1 to Q5