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. 2018 Dec 12;15(149):20180654. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0654

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© 2018 The Author(s)

Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

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Figure 5. — Predictions from the simplified model of ibis–Salmonella interactions (no contact-based transmission, no non-ibis sources, no transiently shedding hosts). Lines show simulated prevalence in ibis (orange) and the environment (blue) during the non-breeding season for median plausible parameter values and using mean flock size and initial conditions for autumn of each year. Bands show the range of predictions generated using the standard error of plausible parameters. Segments and points on the right side of each panel show the observed Salmonella prevalence and 95% confidence interval at the end of each non-breeding season. (Online version in colour.)