Figure 4.

Post-data-to-pre-data variance ratio Var(y*_i|y_i,θ̂,σ̂²)/Var(y*_i|θ̂,σ̂²) in February 2012 for the locally stationary three-month spatio-temporal model with a Gaussian nugget (model 5) at 10, 300 and 1500 dbar (a– c) and for the RG-like reference model (model 1) at 10 dbar (d). Because the RG covariance is the same at all pressures, the variance ratios for the reference model at 300 dbar and 1500 dbar (not shown) are essentially the same as the one at 10 dbar.