Figure 2. Visualization of the top model predicting vagrant warbler occurrence.

Visualization of our top model demonstrating a positive correlation between North American population size and number of vagrants detected in northern California (taken from Harris, 2006). Each four-letter code represents the AOU short-hand abbreviation for each warbler species. Orange marks indicate predicted occurrence of yet unrecorded vagrant warbler species in northern California; six unrecorded vagrant warbler species have small populations and thus do not appear in this figure as they would fall below, or well below, an observation of a single individual predicted: Tropical Parula, Painted Redstart, Olive Warbler, Swainson’s Warbler, Golden-cheeked Warbler, and Kirtland’s Warbler.