Table 3.

Predictive models to diagnose COPD: Development and Validation Cohorts

Cohort	Variables Included						95% CI
EXHALE – Development Cohort (N=348)	ICD-9 codes	Age	MDI’s	Ever Smoker	AUC	SD	LL	UL
Model 1	X				0.633	0.032	0.570	0.696
Model 2*		X	X		0.766	0.031	0.705	0.827
Model 3	X	X		X	0.748	0.033	0.684	0.812
Model 4		X	X	X	0.771	0.032	0.708	0.834
Model 5	X	X	X	X	0.772	0.032	0.709	0.834
UW – Validation Cohort (N=294)	ICD-9 codes	Age	MDI’s	Ever Smoker	AUC	SD	LL	UL
Model 1	X				0.651	0.029	0.595	0.708
Model 2		X	X		0.675	0.033	0.612	0.739
Model 3	X	X		X	0.716	0.032	0.654	0.779
Model 4		X	X	X	0.714	0.030	0.654	0.773
Model 5	X	X	X	X	0.734	0.030	0.675	0.792

^*BMA identified model

MDIs = metered dose inhalers

LL – Lower limit

UL – Upper limit

EXHALE:

P-value that Model 1 AUC is different than Model 2 (<0.01), Model 3 (<0.01), Model 4 (<0.01) and Model 5 (<0.01)

P-value that Model 3 AUC is different than Model 2 (0.46), Model 4 (0.26) and Model 5 (0.09)

P-value that Model 4 AUC is different than Model 2 (0.70) and Model 5 (0.96)

P-value that Model 5 AUC is different than Model 2 (0.70)

UW Cohort:

P-value that Model 1 AUC is different than Model 2 (0.54), Model 3 (<0.01), Model 4 (0.09) and Model 5 (<0.01)

P-value that Model 3 AUC is different than Model 2 (0.22), Model 4 (0.93) and Model 5 (0.34)

P-value that Model 4 AUC is different than Model 2 (0.02) and Model 5 (0.11)

P-value that Model 5 AUC is different than Model 2 (<0.01)