Appendix 1:

Relative Risk of Baseline and Change in Effusion-Synovitis on Change in Cartilage Damage

		Cartilage Damage Size		Cartilage Damage Depth
	N (%)	Additional Subregions Affected	Subregions with Worsening	Additional Subregions Affected	Subregions with Worsening
	Arthroscopic Partial Meniscectomy (n=100)
Baseline Effusion-Synovitis
None/Small	51 (51%)	ref	ref	ref	ref
Medium/Large	49 (49%)	1.2 (0.7, 2.1)	1.0 (0.6, 1.6)	1.5 (0.8, 2.7)	1.4 (0.8, 2.4)
Change in Effusion-Synovitis
Persistently minimal	40 (40%)	ref	ref	ref	ref
Intermittent	35 (35%)	1.6 (0.8, 2.9)	1.1 (0.7, 1.8)	1.2 (0.6, 2.6)	1.5 (0.8, 2.8)
Persistently extensive	25 (25%)	1.7 (0.8, 3.3)	1.1 (0.6, 2.0)	1.9 (0.9, 4.0)	1.7 (0.9 3.5)
	Physical Therapy (n=72)
Baseline Effusion-Synovitis
None/Small	38 (53%)	ref	ref	ref	ref
Medium/Large	34 (47%)	2.1 (0.9, 5.0)	1.6 (0.8, 3.2)	2.6 (1.1, 6.2)*	1.9 (0.9, 4.2)
Change in Effusion-Synovitis
Persistently minimal	35 (49%)	ref	ref	ref	ref
Intermittent	26 (36%)	1.9 (0.8, 4.6)	1.9 (0.9, 3.9)	2.6 (1.0, 6.7)*	1.7 (0.7, 4.1)
Persistently extensive	11 (15%)	1.3 (0.4, 4.4)	1.2 (0.4, 3.4)	2.2 (0.6, 7.5)	2.0 (0.7, 5.9)
	Cross-over (n=49)
Baseline Effusion-Synovitis
None/Small	27 (55%)	ref	ref	ref	ref
Medium/Large	22 (45%)	1.2 (0.5, 2.7)	1.0 (0.5, 2.0)	1.6 (0.6, 3.8)	1.3 (0.6, 2.8)
Change in Effusion-Synovitis
Persistently minimal	25 (51%)	ref	ref	ref	ref
Intermittent	13 (27%)	1.2 (0.5, 3.2)	0.9 (0.4, 2.0)	1.2 (0.4, 3.7)	1.3 (0.5, 3.2)
Persistently extensive	11 (22%)	1.4 (0.5, 4.2)	1.2 (0.5, 2.7)	1.9 (0.6, 5.5)	1.2 (0.5, 3.1)

^*p<0.05