Appendix 2:

Relative Risk of Baseline and Change in Effusion-Synovitis on Change in Cartilage Damage

	Cartilage Damage Size		Cartilage Damage Depth
	Additional Subregions Affected	Subregions with Worsening	Additional Subregions Affected	Subregions with Worsening
Baseline Effusion-Synovitis
None	ref	ref	ref	ref
Any	1.2 (0.7, 1.9)	0.9 (0.6, 1.4)	1.3 (0.8, 2.3)	1.3 (0.8, 2.1)
Change in Effusion-Synovitis
Never Developed	ref	ref	ref	ref
Intermittent	2.4 (0.9, 5.8)	1.0 (0.5 1.8)	1.6 (0.6, 4.0)	1.0 (0.5, 2.3)
Persistent	2.2 (1.0, 5.1)	1.0 (0.6, 1.7)	1.9 (0.8, 4.5)	1.4 (0.7, 2.7)

Any Effusion-synovitis; comprised of small, medium and large effusion-synovitis