Table 2.
Performance of DSI to predict conversion to MCI or any type of dementia in the ADC cohort, for the total cohort and for patients with extreme DSI values
| Variable | % | Stable SCD, n | Progressive SCD, n | AUC | Balanced accuracy | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | 291 | 63 | 0.74 ± 0.04 | 66.0 ± 5.0 | 66.0 ± 11.7 | 65.9 ± 6.1 | 29.7 ± 3.8 | 90.1 ± 2.8 | |
| APOE | 267 | 50 | 0.60 ± 0.05 | 59.7 ± 4.9 | 53.9 ± 8.4 | 65.5 ± 4.5 | 22.7 ± 4.4 | 88.4 ± 2.4 | |
| Neuropsychology | 290 | 62 | 0.69 ± 0.06 | 62.7 ± 4.4 | 61.6 ± 10.8 | 64.3 ± 5.3 | 26.9 ± 3.3 | 88.7 ± 2.4 | |
| CSF | 194 | 33 | 0.77 ± 0.07 | 69.9 ± 5.0 | 66.1 ± 11.3 | 73.6 ± 6.5 | 30.3 ± 5.8 | 92.8 ± 2.6 | |
| MRI (1 T, 1.5 T, 3 T) | 277 | 55 | 0.68 ± 0.05 | 61.4 ± 4.3 | 80.1 ± 10.1 | 42.8 ± 6.8 | 21.8 ± 2.5 | 91.9 ± 3.5 | |
| MRI (>1 T) | 123 | 25 | 0.73 ± 0.09 | 69.1 ± 7.8 | 64.9 ± 15.2 | 73.3 ± 7.6 | 33.6 ± 9.6 | 91.3 ± 4.0 | |
| Demographics + APOE + Neuropsychology + CSF + MRI (1 T, 1.5 T, 3 T) | 291 | 63 | 0.80 ± 0.05 | 74.0 ± 4.2 | 82.9 ± 8.4 | 65.1 ± 5.8 | 34.2 ± 3.8 | 94.7 ± 2.4 | |
| Demographics + APOE + Neuropsychology + CSF + MRI (>1 T) | 291 | 63 | 0.81 ± 0.06 | 74.1 ± 5.8 | 75.7 ± 11.2 | 72.6 ± 4.8 | 37.7 ± 5.5 | 93.3 ± 2.8 | |
| DSI < 0.2 or DSI > 0.8 | |||||||||
| Demographics + APOE + Neuropsychology + CSF + MRI (1 T, 1.5 T, 3 T) | 14 ± 4 | 12 ± 5 | 5 ± 2 | 0.81 ± 0.10 | 83.3 ± 7.4 | 98.9 ± 4.2 | 67.7 ± 13.6 | 59.0 ± 17.4 | 99.4 ± 2.3 |
| Demographics + APOE + Neuropsychology + CSF + MRI (>1 T) | 21 ± 6 | 20 ± 8 | 5 ± 2 | 0.83 ± 0.11 | 84.1 ± 9.6 | 85.4 ± 17.6 | 82.8 ± 7.1 | 56.2 ± 17.1 | 96.3 ± 4.6 |
| DSI < 0.3 or DSI > 0.7 | |||||||||
| Demographics + APOE + Neuropsychology + CSF + MRI (1 T, 1.5 T, 3 T) | 37 ± 6 | 34 ± 7 | 10 ± 3 | 0.84 ± 0.06 | 80.7 ± 6.0 | 89.6 ± 11.4 | 71.8 ± 9.4 | 47.8 ± 10.9 | 96.8 ± 3.0 |
| Demographics + APOE + Neuropsychology + CSF + MRI (>1 T) | 48 ± 6 | 47 ± 7 | 9 ± 3 | 0.84 ± 0.09 | 84.1 ± 7.3 | 84.9 ± 14.2 | 83.3 ± 5.5 | 50.8 ± 12.9 | 97.0 ± 2.6 |
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; SCD, subjective cognitive decline; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; APOE, apolipoprotein E; DSI, Disease State Index.
NOTE. For the extreme DSI values, n: number of patients in a cross-validation fold having the DSI value in the given range; %: percentage of patients in a test set (n = 118) of a cross-validation fold having the DSI value in the given range. Values are presented as mean ± standard deviation over 10 iterations of three-fold cross-validation.