Table 3.

Final models for predicting death in SLS I

FVC Models
	Cox Model using Baseline FVC as covariate	Cox Model using FVC as time- dependent covariate	Joint model usig FVC as a time- dependent covariate
	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Baseline MRSS	1.03 (1.01, 1.05)^*	1.03 (1.01, 1.06)^**	1.03 (1.01, 1.06)^**
Age (years)	1.06 (1.04, 1.08)^****	1.06 (1.04, 1.08)^****	1.06 (1.03, 1.08)^****
FVC%-predicted	0.97 (0.95, 0.99)^**	0.96 (0.94, 0.97)^****	0.97 (0.96, 0.98)^****
AIC	564	546	789

DLCO Models
	Cox Model using Baseline DLCO as covariate	Cox Model using DLCO as time- dependent covariate	Joint model usig DLCO as a time- dependent covariate
	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Baseline MRSS	1.04 (1.01, 1.06)^**	1.04 (1.02, 1.07)^**	1.04 (1.01, 1.06)^**
Age (years)	1.05 (1.03, 1.08)^****	1.05 (1.02, 1.07)^****	1.05 (1.03, 1.07)^****
DLCO%-predicted	0.98 (0.96, 1.00)	0.96 (0.95, 0.98)^****	0.96 (0.94, 0.98)^****
AIC	569	525	791

P<0.05

^**

P<0.01

^***

P<0.001

^****

P<0.0001

Definitions of abbreviations: HR = hazards ratio; AIC = Akaike information criterion; FVC = forced vital capacity; DLCO = single-breath diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide; MRSS = Modified Rodnan Skin Score.