Table 4.

Final models for predicting death in SLS II

FVC Models
	Cox Model using Baseline FVC as covariate	Cox Model using FVC as time- dependent covariate	Joint model usig FVC as a time- dependent covariate
	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Baseline MRSS	1.49 (0.82, 2.56)	1.61 (0.93, 2.77)	1.66 (0.98, 2.83)
Age (years)	1.09 (1.04, 1.14)***	1.09 (1.04, 1.14)***	1.08 (1.04, 1.13)***
FVC%-predicted	1.17 (0.64, 2.14)	0.48 (0.28, 0.81)**	0.51 (0.30, 0.88)*
AIC	250	217	347

DLCO Models
	Cox Model using Baseline DLCO as covariate	Cox Model using DLCO as time- dependent covariate	Joint model usig DLCO as a time- dependent covariate
	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Baseline MRSS	1.56 (0.92, 2.67)	1.86 (1.00, 3.47)	1.85 (1.07, 3.19)*
Age (years)	1.08 (1.03, 1.13)***	1.08 (1.02, 1.15)**	1.07 (1.03, 1.12)**
DLCO%-predicted	0.95 (0.85, 1.06)	0.83 (0.72, 0.96)*	0.84 (0.76, 0.94)**
AIC	249	150	360

^*P<0.05

^**P<0.01

^***P<0.001

^****P<0.0001

Definitions of abbreviations: HR = hazards ratio; AIC = Akaike information criterion; FVC = forced vital capacity; FVC = forced vital capacity; DLCO = single-breath diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide; MRSS = Modified Rodnan Skin Score.