Table 3. Predictive ability of the scores.
| Without cut-off value | With cut-off value | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corresponding score and outcome | AUC (95% CI) | Cut-off | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | LR+ | LR- |
| Mortality | ||||||||
| Severity of illness score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.69 (0.62–0.76) | 4 | 78.1 | 48.9 | 15.6 | 94.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Nurse | 0.71 (0.64–0.78) | 4 | 48.4 | 82.1 | 25.6 | 92.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Physician | 0.72 (0.65–0.79) | 4 | 47.0 | 85.9 | 29.2 | 92.9 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| Severity of concern score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.64 (0.56–0.71) | 4 | 73.4 | 52.8 | 15.8 | 94.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Nurse | 0.75 (0.68–0.81)a | 3 | 85.9 | 54.7 | 19.4 | 96.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Physician | 0.75 (0.68–0.81)a | 4 | 54.5 | 83.1 | 28.6 | 93.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 30-day SQ | ||||||||
| Nurse | 0.73 (0.66–0.80) | 4 | 56.9 | 82.1 | 26.1 | 94.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| Physician | 0.74 (0.68–0.81) | 4 | 49.1 | 87.6 | 31.0 | 93.8 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| Self-rated health score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.67 (0.58–0.75) | 4 | 63.3 | 65.2 | 16.3 | 94.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Composite Endpoint | ||||||||
| Severity of illness score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.67 (0.62–0.71) | 4 | 67.6 | 56.6 | 55.1 | 68.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Nurse | 0.63 (0.58–0.72) | 3 | 71.0 | 47.2 | 51.0 | 67.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Physician | 0.65 (0.61–0.69) | 3 | 64.8 | 59.5 | 55.4 | 68.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Severity of concern score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.63 (0.58–0.67) | 4 | 60.3 | 58.1 | 53.2 | 65.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Nurse | 0.63 (0.58–0.67) | 3 | 62.0 | 59.6 | 54.4 | 66.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Physician | 0.67 (0.62–0.71) | 3 | 65.1 | 61.9 | 57.0 | 69.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Self-rated health score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.60 (0.55–0.65) | 4 | 48.3 | 70.2 | 53.7 | 65.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Loss of independent living | ||||||||
| Loss of independency score | ||||||||
| Patient | 0.69 (0.62–0.76) | 3 | 62.7 | 76.7 | 30.1 | 89.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Nurse | 0.81 (0.75–0.86)a | 4 | 80.8 | 77.2 | 40.4 | 95.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Physician | 0.72 (0.66–0.78) | 4 | 66.7 | 74.6 | 28.8 | 92.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Prolonged LOS | ||||||||
| LOS score | ||||||||
| Nurse | 0.67 (0.61–0.72) | 4 | 61.5 | 71.6 | 57.2 | 75.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Physician | 0.70 (0.65–0.75) | 4 | 61.6 | 74.7 | 59.9 | 76.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; PPV, Positive Predictive Value; NPV, Negative Predictive Value; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR-, negative likelihood ratio; SQ, surprise question; LOS, length of hospital stay
aAUC is significantly higher than the other AUCs for the same score