Table 1.
Agent characteristics and comparisons with empirically available data
| Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ABM estimates (95% CI) | NYC estimates* | Estimates from other data sources** | |
| Baseline drinking status (%) | |||
| Non-drinker | 46.5 (46.4–46.6) | 42.7 (50.6–44.8) 55.2 (52.7–57.8) |
45.6 (45.0–46.2) |
| Light/moderate drinker | 41.3 (41.2–41.4) | 47.0 (44.9–49.1) 33.2 (30.9–35.6) |
41.4 (40.8–41.9) |
| Heavy drinker | 12.2 (12.1–12.3) | 10.3 (9.0–11.5) 11.6 (9.9–13.4) |
13.0 (12.6–13.4) |
| Drinking transitions (%) | |||
| Non → Light/moderate | 16.3 (16.2–16.4) | 20.8 (17.8, 24.1) | 15.7 (15.0–16.4) |
| Light/moderate → Non | 18.6 (18.6–18.7) | 15.0 (12.3, 18.3) | 22.9 (21.5–24.3) |
| Light/moderate → Heavy | 9.3 (9.2–9.3) | 11.8 (9.1, 15.1) | 24.5 (23.0–26.0) |
| Heavy → Light/moderate | 32.8 (32.6–32.9) | 35.5 (28.3, 43.4) | 55.4 (54.6–56.2) |
| Violent victimization (%)+ | |||
| Past-year victimization | 3.67 (3.64–3.69) | 3.6 (2.3, 6.0) | 1.4 (1.3–1.6); 8.0 |
| Lifetime victimization | 38.1 (37.9–38.2) | 32.3 (30.8, 33.9) | 15.0; 19.8 (19.4–20.3); 50.8 |
| Violent perpetration (%)++ | |||
| Past-year perpetration | 0.56 (0.54–0.57) | NA | 0.44 (0.40, 0.49); 3.2 |
| Lifetime perpetration | 11.0 (10.9–11.1) | NA | 10.1 (9.7–10.5); 17.7 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000)*** | |||
| Total homicide | 11.8 (10.9–12.9) | 10.7 | NA |
| Alcohol-related homicide | 3.22 (2.50–3.73) | 3.14 | NA |
NYC data sources include World Trade Center study (33), New York Social Environment Study (32, 66, 67), and data from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner in NYC (46)
Estimates from other data sources include NESARC (45), Detroit Neighborhood Health Study (DNHS) (43) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (44)
Population estimates not drawn from sample; no confidence intervals included
Past-year victimization calibration based on estimates in Potter, 2009 (8.0%) and NESARC (1.4%, 95% C.I. 1.3–1.6); lifetime victimization calibration based on estimates in Norris, 1992 (56) (8.0%); NESARC (19.8% 95% C.I. 19.2–20.3); and the Detroit Neighborhood Health Study (50.8%)
Past-year perpetration calibrated based on estimates in Silver, 2005 (57) (3.2%) and NESARC (0.44%, 95% c.I. 0.40–0.49). Lifetime perpetration calibrated based on estimates in Elbogen, 2009 (58) (17.7%) and NESARC (10.1%, 95% C.I. 9.7–10.5).