Table 2.

Simulated estimates of the prevalence of heavy, light and non-drinking, as well as violence and homicide rates per 100,000, at each level of taxation intervention, in an agent-based model of New York City, with 95% percentile intervals

	Tax percent increase	Non-Drinker	Light Drinker	Heavy Drinker	Alcohol Violence*	Violence*	Alcohol Homicide*	Homicide*
No Tax Increase	0%	46.5	41.3	12.2	1126.7	3670.7	3.22	11.8
		(46.4, 46.6)	(41.2, 41.4)	(12.1, 12.3)	(1097.6, 1169.6)	(3644.0, 3693.7)	(2.50, 3.73)	(10.8, 12.9)
Universal Alcohol Tax	1%	47.2	41.3	11.5	1058.2	3663.1	2.98	12.0
		(47.0, 47.5)	(41.1, 41.5)	(11.2, 11.8)	(1015.2, 1102.1)	(3633.7, 3693.9)	(2.24, 3.61)	(10.8, 12.8)
	5%	48.5	41.0	10.5	967.5	3642.2	2.73	12.0
		(48.3, 49.0)	(40.7, 41.1)	(10.2, 10.8)	(918.4, 1002.0)	(3604.9, 3669.7)	(2.06, 3.37)	(10.8, 13.2)
	10%	50.3	40.2	9.6	870.3	3640.5	2.40	11.7
		(49.9, 50.5)	(40.0, 40.4)	(9.4, 9.8)	(833.0, 906.5)	(3603.7, 3674.8)	(1.92, 2.94)	(10.5, 13.0)
Beer Only Tax	1%	47.1	41.3	11.6	1064.7	3659.0	3.08	11.6
		(46.9, 47.3)	(41.2, 41.5)	(11.3, 11.8)	(1032.3, 1089.7)	(3629.6, 3694.0)	(2.46, 3.53)	(10.6, 13.1)
	5%	47.8	41.2	11.0	1000.5	3645.0	2.90	11.9
		(47.5, 48.1)	(41.0, 41.4)	(10.8, 11.3)	(963.4, 1042.7)	(3621.9, 3685.9)	(2.27, 3.46)	(10.5, 13.0)
	10%	48.5	41.0	10.5	951.5	3640.3	2.61	12.0
		(48.3, 48.9)	(40.8, 41.2)	(10.2, 10.7)	(892.3, 985.9)	(3613.9, 3675.3)	(1.99, 3.24)	(10.3, 13.5)

^*Violence and Homicide is rate per 100,000