Table 3.
Simulated estimates of the prevalence of light and heavy drinking, violence and homicide, by beverage type and level of taxation in an agent-based model of New York City, with 95% percentile intervals
| Tax Percent Increase | Light Drinker (% of agent population) | Heavy Drinker (% of agent population) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beer | Wine | Spirits | Beer | Wine | Spirits | ||
| No Tax Increase | 0% | 0.61 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| (0.61, 0.61) | (0.78, 0.79) | (0.62, 0.63) | (0.39, 0.39) | (0.21, 0.22) | (0.37, 0.38) | ||
| Universal Alcohol Tax | 1% | 0.64 | 0.8025 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| (0.62, 0.65) | (0.79, 0.81) | (0.64, 0.69) | (0.34, 0.38) | (0.18, 0.21) | (0.31, 0.36) | ||
| 5% | 0.66 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.28 | |
| (0.65, 0.68) | (0.80, 0.82) | (0.67, 0.71) | (0.30, 0.34) | (0.16, 0.18) | (0.26, 0.30) | ||
| 10% | 0.68 | 0.81 | 0.70 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 0.24 | |
| (0.67, 0.70) | (0.80, 0.82) | (0.68, 0.72) | (0.27, 0.30) | (0.14, 0.16) | (0.23, 0.26) | ||
| Beer Only Tax | 1% | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| (0.62, 0.65) | (0.79, 0.81) | (0.63, 0.67) | (0.34, 0.37) | (0.19, 0.20) | (0.32, 0.36) | ||
| 5% | 0.66 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.33 | |
| (0.64, 0.67) | (0.79, 0.81) | (0.65, 0.68) | (0.32, 0.35) | (0.18, 0.20) | (0.31, 0.35) | ||
| 10% | 0.67 | 0.81 | 0.68 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.31 | |
| (0.66, 0.68) | (0.80, 0.82) | (0.66, 0.69) | (0.29, 0.32) | (0.17, 0.19) | (0.29, 0.33) | ||
| Alcohol-Related Violence (per 100,000) | Violent Victimization (per 100,000) | ||||||
| No Tax | 0% | 2355.4 | 1141.6 | 2155.4 | 3780.1 | 2659.3 | 3580.6 |
| (2276.6, 2426.4) | (1072.8, 1195.4) | (2056.2, 2234.2) | (3710.5, 3860.8) | (2603.9, 2739.0) | (3452.6, 3659.2) | ||
| Universal Alcohol Tax | 1% | 2135.3 | 1030.7 | 1862.9 | 3673.8 | 2620.3 | 3421.9 |
| (2049.7, 2238.0) | (951.6, 1106.3) | (1710.3, 2038.0) | (3606.0, 3746.8) | (2559.6, 2684.2) | (3310.6, 3548.9) | ||
| 5% | 1853.3 | 869.6 | 1502.2 | 3535.3 | 2537.7 | 3244.5 | |
| (1725.8, 1956.6) | (799.1, 934.7) | (1398.0, 1620.6) | (3436.5, 3608.7) | (2452.2, 2622.8) | (3131.8, 3339.7) | ||
| 10% | 1581.1 | 732.2 | 1250.0 | 3398.4 | 2475.3 | 3120.3 | |
| (1503.6, 1667.9) | (662.1, 800.0) | (1146.3, 1351.6) | (3327.1, 3452.0) | (2370.6, 2575.0) | (3031.4, 3217.0) | ||
| Beer Only Tax | 1% | 2172.9 | 1043.3 | 1932.3 | 3693.4 | 2634.8 | 3467.4 |
| (2015.9, 2250.9) | (979.7, 1106.9) | (1811.5, 2040.6) | (3593.5, 3790.7) | (2557.5, 2737.0) | (3359.2, 3555.8) | ||
| 5% | 1930.7 | 989.9 | 1813.6 | 3563.3 | 2603.9 | 3402.7 | |
| (1840.5, 2062.3) | (921.8, 1077.0) | (1647.8, 1941.0) | (3501.9, 3669.4) | (2526.6, 2692.1) | (3264.5, 3514.9) | ||
| 10% | 1748.7 | 926.9 | 1682.2 | 3474.7 | 2567.7 | 3349.5 | |
| (1626.4, 1827.2) | (864.7, 1007.7) | (1575.3, 1830.9) | (3377.5, 3544.0) | (2495.3, 2666.6) | (3211.8, 3455.7) | ||
| Alcohol-Related Homicide (per 100,000) | Homicide (per 100,000) | ||||||
| No Tax | 0% | 5.89 | 2.86 | 6.50 | 11.20 | 6.72 | 11.4 |
| (4.10, 8.68) | (0.96, 5.15) | (2.76, 9.84) | (8.95, 14.2) | (4.30, 11.4) | (7.37, 15.1) | ||
| Universal Alcohol Tax | 1% | 6.10 | 2.90 | 5.63 | 11.6 | 7.30 | 12.5 |
| (4.14, 8.42) | (0.59, 5.35) | (2.82, 9.99) | (8.34, 14.4) | (4.37, 12.2) | (8.12, 16.2) | ||
| 5% | 5.01 | 2.01 | 3.81 | 10.8 | 6.49 | 10.4 | |
| (2.90, 6.77) | (0.50, 3.89) | (2.05, 9.37) | (7.71, 13.1) | (4.01, 10.0) | (6.42, 16.0) | ||
| 10% | 3.99 | 1.5793 | 3.6879 | 10.10 | 5.80 | 11.06 | |
| (2.51, 5.77) | (0.12, 2.64) | (0.33, 5.97) | (7.92, 12.6) | (3.67, 10.6) | (5.49, 16.2) | ||
| Beer Only Tax | 1% | 6.11 | 2.42 | 5.30 | 11.0 | 6.75 | 11.20 |
| (3.71, 8.22) | (0.97, 4.87) | (2.79, 9.08) | (8.28, 13.8) | (3.85, 10.2) | (7.99, 16.8) | ||
| 5% | 5.53 | 2.43 | 5.3463 | 11.2 | 6.82 | 12.6 | |
| (3.73, 7.74) | (0.97, 4.63) | (2.63, 9.93) | (7.66, 14.9) | (4.02, 9.78) | (7.26, 17.1) | ||
| 10% | 4.14 | 1.97 | 4.71 | 10.70 | 7.3458 | 11.4228 | |
| (2.58, 6.43) | (0.11, 3.78) | (2.02, 7.74) | (7.35, 13.1) | (3.57, 10.9) | (7.31, 17.3) | ||