Table 4.
Causal effects between the top spreaders and the candidates supporters
↙ | Pro-Clinton | Pro-Trump | Fake news | Extreme bias (right) | Right |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pro-Clinton | 0.65 ± 0.01 | 0.14 ± 0.01 | 0.029 ± 0.007 | 0.021 ± 0.006 | 0.002 ± 0.006 |
Pro-Trump | 0.11 ± 0.02 | 0.46 ± 0.01 | 0.009 ± 0.006 | 0.003 ± 0.001 | 0.0014 ± 0.0009 |
Fake news | 0.015 ± 0.003 | 0.10 ± 0.01 | 0.14 ± 0.01 | 0.05 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 |
Extreme bias (right) | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.009 ± 0.002 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.21 ± 0.01 | 0.04 ± 0.01 |
Right | 0.009 ± 0.002 | 0.025 ± 0.008 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.18 ± 0.01 |
Right leaning | 0.018 ± 0.008 | 0.038 ± 0.008 | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.07 ± 0.01 |
Center | 0.04 ± 0.01 | 0.023 ± 0.010 | 0.021 ± 0.007 | 0.0020 ± 0.0007 | 0.009 ± 0.008 |
Left leaning | 0.04 ± 0.01 | 0.015 ± 0.006 | 0.003 ± 0.001 | 0.0010 ± 0.0005 | 0.009 ± 0.007 |
Left | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.010 ± 0.008 | 0.002 ± 0.001 | 0.01 ± 0.01 |
Extreme bias (left) | 0.08 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.02 | 0.031 ± 0.009 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.0025 ± 0.0008 |
↙ | Right leaning | Center | Left leaning | Left | Extreme bias (left) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pro-Clinton | 0.003 ± 0.001 | 0.065 ± 0.008 | 0.062 ± 0.008 | 0.017 ± 0.009 | 0.006 ± 0.006 |
Pro-Trump | 0.0020 ± 0.0009 | 0.038 ± 0.006 | 0.033 ± 0.008 | 0.020 ± 0.007 | 0.015 ± 0.006 |
Fake news | 0.06 ± 0.01 | 0.037 ± 0.009 | 0.016 ± 0.002 | 0.014 ± 0.008 | 0.022 ± 0.009 |
Extreme bias (right) | 0.06 ± 0.01 | 0.039 ± 0.009 | 0.018 ± 0.002 | 0.026 ± 0.009 | 0.027 ± 0.009 |
Right | 0.09 ± 0.01 | 0.044 ± 0.009 | 0.016 ± 0.002 | 0.0026 ± 0.0009 | 0.033 ± 0.008 |
Right leaning | 0.22 ± 0.01 | 0.042 ± 0.009 | 0.033 ± 0.009 | 0.0014 ± 0.0008 | 0.0027 ± 0.0008 |
Center | 0.012 ± 0.010 | 0.266 ± 0.009 | 0.18 ± 0.01 | 0.019 ± 0.010 | 0.013 ± 0.008 |
Left leaning | 0.005 ± 0.003 | 0.18 ± 0.01 | 0.299 ± 0.009 | 0.012 ± 0.008 | 0.003 ± 0.002 |
Left | 0.015 ± 0.008 | 0.08 ± 0.01 | 0.10 ± 0.01 | 0.164 ± 0.010 | 0.07 ± 0.01 |
Extreme bias (left) | 0.005 ± 0.009 | 0.034 ± 0.009 | 0.045 ± 0.009 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.27 ± 0.01 |
We show the value of the maximal causal effect between each pair (i, j) of activity time series, where τmax = 18 × 15 min = 4.5 h is the maximal time lag considered, with standard errors (s.d., see Methods). The arrows indicate the direction of the causal effect. For each activity time series, we indicate in bold the three most important drivers of activity (excluding themselves)