Table 4.
Nevi count and risk of melanoma by Breslow thickness
| Person-years | Melanoma with Breslow ≤1mm |
Melanoma with Breslow >1mm |
P for heterogeneity |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | Age-adjusted HR (95% CI) |
MV-adjusted HRa
(95% CI) |
n | Age-adjusted HR (95% CI) |
MV-adjusted HRa (95% CI) |
|||
| Nurses’ Health Study (86–12) | ||||||||
| 0 | 1093963 | 226 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 1–2 | 414208 | 123 | 1.43 (1.15, 1.79) | 1.36 (1.09, 1.70) | 39 | 1.13 (0.78, 1.65) | 1.11 (0.76, 1.61) | 0.35 |
| 3–5 | 136421 | 71 | 2.52 (1.93, 3.30) | 2.33 (1.78, 3.05) | 26 | 2.28 (1.48, 3.53) | 2.17 (1.40, 3.35) | 0.78 |
| ≥6 | 78253 | 57 | 3.56 (2.66, 4.76) | 3.15 (2.35, 4.22) | 15 | 2.34 (1.36, 4.04) | 2.28 (1.32, 3.96) | 0.31 |
| P for trend | 3.99×10−23 | 9.06×−19 | 0.0001 | 0.0003 | 0.32 | |||
| Nurses’ Health Study II (89–11) | ||||||||
| 0 | 1061892 | 127 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 26 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 1–2 | 403850 | 68 | 1.41 (1.05, 1.89) | 1.37 (1.02–1.84) | 10 | 1.00 (0.48, 2.08) | 0.98 (0.47, 2.04) | 0.41 |
| 3–5 | 217184 | 41 | 1.57 (1.11, 2.24) | 1.53 (1.08, 2.18) | 7 | 1.31 (0.57, 3.03) | 1.30 (0.56, 3.00) | 0.72 |
| ≥6 | 456479 | 170 | 3.09 (2.46, 3.89) | 2.90 (2.30, 3.65) | 21 | 1.89 (1.06, 3.36) | 1.83 (1.02, 3.27) | 0.15 |
| P for trend | 1.98×10−25 | 2.40×10−22 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.14 | |||
|
Health Professionals Follow-up
Study (88–12) |
||||||||
| 0 | 444624 | 170 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 43 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| 1–2 | 128308 | 64 | 1.30 (0.97, 1.73) | 1.26 (0.94, 1.68) | 29 | 2.33 (1.45, 3.73) | 2.23 (1.39, 3.57) | 0.04 |
| 3–5 | 48326 | 35 | 1.86 (1.29, 2.67) | 1.74 (1.21, 2.50) | 20 | 4.16 (2.45, 7.08) | 3.79 (2.22, 6.47) | 0.02 |
| ≥6 | 33825 | 25 | 1.89 (1.24, 2.88) | 1.75 (1.15, 2.67) | 16 | 4.82 (2.71, 8.57) | 4.31 (2.41, 7.68) | 0.01 |
| P for trend | 6.46×10−5 | 0.0004 | 2.44×10−10 | 6.22×10−9 | 0.01 | |||
| Meta-analysis | ||||||||
| 0 | 2600479 | 521 | - | 1.00 | 162 | - | 1.00 | |
| 1–2 | 946366 | 250 | - | 1.33 (1.15–1.55) | 78 | - | 1.38 (0.83, 2.29) | 0.89 |
| 3–5 | 401931 | 146 | - | 1.88 (1.45, 2.44) | 53 | - | 2.35 (1.38, 4.00) | 0.46 |
| ≥6 | 568557 | 249 | - | 2.63 (1.96, 3.52) | 52 | - | 2.62 (1.59, 4.29) | 0.99 |
| P for trend | - | 7.61×10−14 | - | 0.0001 | 1.00 | |||
CI: confidence interval; HR: hazard ratio
a
Stratifying by age and questionnaire cycle, and adjusting for BMI (<25, 25–29.9, or ≥30 kg/m2), smoking (never, past, or current), alcohol intake (0, 0–4.9, 5–9.9, or ≥10 g/d), citrus consumption (<2 times/wk, ≥2-≤4 times/wk, >4 times/wk-<1 time/d, or ≥1 time/d), physical examination (yes or no), UV radiation (in quintiles), personal history of keratinocyte carcinoma (yes or no), and other host characteristics, including hair color, family history of melanoma, tanning ability (NHS only), burning susceptibility, and number of sunburns.