Table 2. Demographic parameters estimated by DIYABC under three scenarios. Performance of each estimation was evaluated by RRMISE (the square Root of the Relative Mean Integrated Square Error), RMeanAD (the Relative Mean Absolute Deviation) and RRMSE (the square Root of the Relative Mean Square Error), which are output from DIYABC option “Compute bias and mean square error.” The numbers with or without parentheses in the columns “Performances for estimating posterior distributions of parameters” are those of the statistics computed from the prior or posterior distribution of parameters, respectively.
| Prior distribution | Posterior parameter estimates | Performances for estimating posterior distributions of parameters | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Parameters | Type | min. | max. | mean | S.D. | Mean | 95% credible interval | RRMISE | RMeanAD | RRMSE | |
| III | NN.JPN | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 450,000 | 500,000 | 825,000 | 492,000 | 1,240,000 | 0.415 (-0.586) | 0.302 (-0.485) | 0.302 (-0.288) |
| NTajima-Tango | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 600,000 | 500,000 | 613,000 | 369,000 | 901,000 | 0.35 (-0.808) | 0.256 (-0.61) | 0.251 (-0.358) | |
| NKyushu | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,225,000 | 500,000 | 1,210,000 | 711,000 | 1,830,000 | 0.364 (-0.524) | 0.264 (-0.396) | 0.267 (-0.282) | |
| Nhonshu | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,050,000 | 500,000 | 1,490,000 | 974,000 | 2,020,000 | 0.291 (-0.442) | 0.219 (-0.368) | 0.213 (-0.289) | |
| NAncestor | Uniform | 10,000 | 30,000,000 | — | — | 432,000 | 59,700 | 922,000 | 5.899 (-133.368) | 1.846 (-59.034) | 5.119 (-115.475) | |
| TN.JPN–Tajma-Tango | Uniform | 10 | 4,000,000 | — | — | 566,000 | 311,000 | 908,000 | 0.409 (-2.417) | 0.300 (-1.725) | 0.266 (-1.589) | |
| Tkyushu–Honshu | Uniform | 10 | 4,000,000 | — | — | 1,050,000 | 442,000 | 2,290,000 | 0.575 (-2.398) | 0.374 (-1.875) | 0.284 (-2.114) | |
| TN.JPN–S.JPN | Normal | 1,000,000 | 30,000,000 | 4,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 4,560,000 | 2,820,000 | 6,810,000 | 0.329 (-1.079) | 0.245 (-0.776) | 0.229 (-0.743) | |
| IV | NN.JPN | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 450,000 | 500,000 | 812,000 | 390,000 | 1,330,000 | 0.447 (-0.635) | 0.332 (-0.506) | 0.303 (-0.326) |
| NTajima-Tango | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 600,000 | 500,000 | 480,000 | 266,000 | 739,000 | 0.375 (-1.208) | 0.284 (-0.88) | 0.261 (-0.736) | |
| NKyushu | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,225,000 | 500,000 | 1,290,000 | 758,000 | 1,910,000 | 0.356 (-0.483) | 0.265 (-0.373) | 0.265 (-0.252) | |
| Nhonshu | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,050,000 | 500,000 | 1,450,000 | 913,000 | 2,020,000 | 0.316 (-0.446) | 0.235 (-0.369) | 0.235 (-0.279) | |
| NAncestor | Uniform | 10,000 | 30,000,000 | — | — | 390,000 | 57,200 | 849,000 | 6.947 (-131.19) | 2.285 (-62.259) | 5.997 (-113.55) | |
| TADMIX | Uniform | 10 | 4,000,000 | — | — | 512,000 | 242,000 | 842,000 | 0.397 (-4.374) | 0.308 (-2.163) | 0.249 (-3.309) | |
| Tkyushu–Honshu | Uniform | 10 | 4,000,000 | — | — | 1,100,000 | 446,000 | 2,420,000 | 0.576 (-2.256) | 0.381 (-1.76) | 0.296 (-1.98) | |
| TN.JPN–S.JPN | Normal | 1,000,000 | 30,000,000 | 4,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,160,000 | 3,080,000 | 7,780,000 | 0.345 (-0.916) | 0.262 (-0.65) | 0.239 (-0.588) | |
| r | Uniform | 0.001 | 0.999 | — | — | 0.944 | 0.897 | 0.987 | 0.027 (-0.559) | 0.02 (-0.472) | 0.014 (-0.469) | |
| Out of NK | NS.Saga | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,300,000 | 500,000 | 1,326,000 | 960,075 | 1,670,250 | 0.178 (-0.31) | 0.138 (-0.241) | 0.120 (-0.095) |
| NN.Saga | Normal | 10,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,250,000 | 500,000 | 1,224,000 | 892,500 | 1,593,750 | 0.181 (-0.322) | 0.142 (-0.251) | 0.119 (-0.096) | |
| TS.Saga–N.Saga | Uniform | 1,000 | 4,000,000 | — | — | 510,000 | 337,875 | 679,575 | 0.224 (-5.918) | 0.175 (-4.488) | 0.143 (-4.429) | |