Table 5.

The probability of a minor epidemic and the mean μ and standard deviation σ for the duration of a minor epidemic in the SEIR epidemic given initial conditions $\left(E\left(0\right),I\left(0\right)\right)=\left(\mathrm{0,3}\right)$ or $\left(E\left(0\right),I\left(0\right)\right)=\left(\mathrm{3,0}\right)$ for parameter values $\gamma =1=\delta$ and ${\mathrm{ℛ}}_0=\beta$.

${\mathrm{ℛ}}_0$	${\mathrm{\mathbb{P}}}_{\text{ext}}$	$\left(E\left(0\right),I\left(0\right)\right)=\left(\mathrm{0,3}\right)$		$\left(E\left(0\right),I\left(0\right)\right)=\left(\mathrm{3,0}\right)$
		μ	σ	μ	σ
0.9	1.00	10.48	13.53	11.63	13.47
0.95	1.00	13.82	21.44	14.96	21.38
1.05	0.864	11.82	19.84	12.81	19.80
1.1	0.751	7.84	12.20	8.71	12.20
1.5	0.296	1.325	2.96	1.69	3.25
2	0.125	0.353	1.307	0.517	1.614