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. 2019 Jan 10;10:106. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-08036-6

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Factors affecting the probability of infection. Point and line indicates the point estimate and the 95% credible interval of the relative susceptibility, respectively. 95% credible intervals are constructed by using MCMC to fit the data with digraph model. a Estimated relative susceptibility of age. b Estimated relative susceptibility of vaccinees. c Estimated susceptibility of contacts with intermediate (20 or 40) and high ( > 40) level of pre-season antibody titers, compared with contacts with low ( < 20) level of pre-season antibody titers measured by the hemagglutination inhibition assay, respectively