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. 2019 Jan 10;10:121. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — Seasonality of the historical (1979–2016) trends in Arctic (67°–90°N) sea-ice cover (SIC), Arctic amplification (AA), and Arctic energy fluxes. a from ERA-Interim reanalysis data and b from the ensemble mean of historical (for 1979–2005) and RCP8.5 (for 2006–2016) simulations averaged over 38 CMIP5 models. The SIC trend (gray bars) is in 10⁵ km²/decade; the AA (black line) is defined as the ratio of the surface air temperature trends between the Arctic and the globe; the surface net shortwave (red, positive downward), sensible plus latent heat (blue, positive upward) and upward longwave (magenta) flux trends are in W/m²/decade