Appendix Table 1.
Description of Joinpoint Analyses and Modeling Decisions, by Cancer Site and Age Group
| Variable | Cases, n | Significant Joinpoint (Year) | Annual Percent Change (P Value) | Estimate Replaced with SEER 2013 Rate (Years)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIDS-defining cancer | ||||
| Kaposi sarcoma† | ||||
| MSM | ||||
| 18–34 y | 642 | No | −5.0 (P < 0.001) | No |
| 35–44 y | 904 | No | −5.2 (P < 0.001) | No |
| ≥45 y | 511 | No | −8.0 (P < 0.001) | No |
| Non-MSM | ||||
| 18–34 y | 194 | No | −5.2 (P = 0.01) | No |
| 35–44 y | 420 | No | −8.8 (P < 0.001) | No |
| ≥45 y | 420 | No | −11.3 (P < 0.001) | No |
| NHL† | ||||
| 18–24 y | 86 | No | −11.1 (P = 0.001) | No |
| 25–34 y | 529 | No | −5.1 (P < 0.001) | No |
| 35–44 y | 1660 | Yes (2002) | −6.2 (P < 0.001) | No |
| 45–64 y | 2403 | No | −9.0 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2028–2030) |
| ≥65 y | 168 | No | −12.7 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2014–2030) |
| Cervical cancer‡ | ||||
| 25–34 y | 75 | No | −8.7 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2030) |
| 35–44 y | 252 | No | −8.7 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2027–2030) |
| ≥45 y | 209 | No | −8.7 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2025–2030) |
| Non-AIDS-defining cancer | ||||
| Lung cancer†‡ | ||||
| 35–44 y | 278 | No | −9.1 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2025–2030) |
| 45–64 y | 1857 | No | −5.6 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2020–2030) |
| ≥65 y | 360 | No | −7.9 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2011–2030) |
| Prostate cancer†‡ | ||||
| 35–44 y | 52 | No | 8.7 (P = 0.050) | Yes (2002–2030) |
| 45–64 y | 1116 | No | 3.5 (P < 0.001) | Yes (2024–2030) |
| ≥65 y | 381 | No | 1.2 (P = 0.45) | No |
| Anal cancer | ||||
| MSM‡ | ||||
| 25–34 y | 58 | No | −2.7 (P = 0.005) | No |
| 35–44 y | 330 | No | −2.7 (P = 0.005) | No |
| ≥45 y | 537 | Yes (2009)§ | −2.7 (P = 0.005) | No |
| Non-MSM | ||||
| 25–34 y | 26 | No | 1.4 (P = 0.32) | No |
| 35–44 y | 158 | No | 1.4 (P = 0.32) | No |
| ≥45 y | 333 | No | 1.4 (P = 0.32) | No |
| Liver cancer | ||||
| PWID‡ | ||||
| 35–44 y | 38 | No | 0.8 (P = 0.51) | No |
| 45–64 y | 577 | No | 0.8 (P = 0.51) | No |
| ≥65 y | 48 | Yes (2005)§ | 0.8 (P = 0.51) | No |
| Non-PWID‡ | ||||
| 35–44 y | 73 | No | −1.4 (P = 0.92) | No |
| 45–64 y | 350 | No | −1.4 (P = 0.92) | No |
| ≥65 y | 49 | No | −1.4 (P = 0.92) | No |
| Hodgkin lymphoma‖ | ||||
| 18–34 y | 155 | No | −4.4 (P < 0.001) | No |
| 35–44 y | 324 | No | −4.4 (P < 0.001) | No |
| ≥45 y | 440 | No | −4.4 (P < 0.001) | No |
| Oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer‡ | ||||
| 35–44 y | 105 | No | −1.5 (P = 0.175) | No |
| 45–64 y | 555 | No | −1.5 (P = 0.175) | No |
| ≥65 y | 59 | No | −1.5 (P = 0.175) | No |
| Breast cancer‡ | ||||
| 25–44 y | 206 | No | −1.4 (P = 0.24) | No |
| 45–64 y | 436 | No | −1.4 (P = 0.24) | No |
| ≥65 y | 48 | No | −1.4 (P = 0.24) | No |
| Colon cancer†‡ | ||||
| 25–44 y | 58 | No | −4.7 (P = 0.22) | No |
| 45–64 y | 325 | No | 0.01 (P = 0.99) | No |
| ≥65 y | 117 | No | −6.0 (P = 0.028) | No |
| All other cancer types† | ||||
| 18–34 y | 269 | No | −5.3 (P = 0.002) | No |
| 35–44 y | 1019 | No | −3.1 (P = 0.001) | No |
| 45–64 y | 3379 | No | −2.0 (P < 0.001) | No |
| ≥65 y | 579 | No | −3.4 (P = 0.008) | No |
MSM = men who have sex with men; NHL = non-Hodgkin lymphoma; PLWH = persons living with HIV; PWID = persons who inject drugs; SEER = Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.
For types of cancer known to be elevated in PLWH, we assumed a priori that future cancer rates would never be lower than rates observed in the general population. Therefore, any projected rate that was lower than the 2013 age-specific rate in SEER-18 data (as a proxy for the U.S. general population) was reset to the SEER rate. Likewise, because PLWH have a lower risk for prostate, breast, and colon cancer for unclear reasons, we assumed that the age-specific rates of these types of cancer would never exceed those in SEER-18.
Time trends differed significantly across age groups, so trends were projected separately for each age group.
The cancer incidence rates in the youngest age group(s) were assumed to be 0 because of the limited number of reported cases of cervical cancer (n = 1), anal cancer in MSM (n = 2), anal cancer in non-MSM (n = 0), lung cancer (n = 10), liver cancer in PWID (n = 0), liver cancer in non-PWID (n = 2), oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (n = 7), prostate cancer (n = 2), breast cancer (n = 2), and colon cancer (n = 0).
A joinpoint was identified, but when the calendar years were limited, data were too sparse for forecasting.
2000 excluded because of extreme estimates.