Fig. 3.

Summary of ARGONet performance benchmarked with ARGO and AR52. a State-level performance of ARGONet with benchmarks, as measured by RMSE (top), Pearson correlation (middle), and MAPE (bottom), over the period from September 28, 2014 to May 14, 2017. States are ordered by ARGONet performance relative to the benchmarks to facilitate comparison. b The proportion of states where ARGO (top), Net (middle), or ARGONet (bottom) outperforms AR52 in 0, 1, 2, or all 3 metrics. c The distribution of values for each metric for each model, over the 108 state-seasons during the same period. The embedded boxplots indicate median and interquartile ranges. Numerical values are reported in Supplementary Table 1. d The distribution of ranks attained by each model over the 108 state-seasons for each metric. e The proportion of states where each model outperforms AR52 in 0, 1, 2, or all 3 influenza seasons within the same period. Only 34 states have data for all three influenza seasons available in this period