Table 5.

Logistic Regressions Predicting 2004 Heavy and Not Heavy Drinking

	Model 6: Past-month not heavy to past-month heavy		Model 7: Past-month heavy to past-month not heavy
N	4,315		968
N transitioned (%)	268 (6%)		539 (56%)
−2LL	−33782.10		−8197.12
	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI
Male	1.51	(1.15, 1.99)	0.73	(0.54, 0.99)
High school IQ (normalized)	1.12	(0.96, 1.31)	0.94	(0.80, 1.10)
Baseline years of education	0.95	(0.89, 1.01)	1.00	(0.93, 1.08)
Employment status
Employed–employed (reference)	1.00	–	1.00	–
Unemployed–unemployed	0.69	(0.40, 1.17)	1.03	(0.63, 1.68)
Employed–unemployed	1.29	(0.99, 1.68)	0.87	(0.65, 1.15)
Unemployed–employed	1.26	(0.57, 2.80)	1.32	(0.61, 2.89)
Marital status
Married–married (reference)	1.00	–	1.00	–
Married–not married	1.13	(0.70, 1.83)	1.10	(0.66, 1.83)
Not married–not married	0.84	(0.56, 1.27)	0.72	(0.47, 1.10)
Not married–married	1.42	(0.66, 3.04)	0.72	(0.35, 1.49)
Multiple marriage transitions	1.33	(0.53, 3.35)	1.22	(0.36, 4.12)
Baseline income (1000’s) logged	1.08	(0.96, 1.22)	0.88	(0.77, 1.01)
Experienced debt	1.02	(0.62, 1.68)	1.84	(1.05, 3.24)
Baseline attended religious services	0.65	(0.47, 0.91)	1.27	(0.89, 1.80)
Baseline good health	1.16	(0.68, 1.96)	1.54	(0.96, 2.49)
Experienced major medical diagnosis	0.87	(0.64, 1.18)	2.01	(1.45, 2.78)
Hospitalized year prior to follow-up	0.58	(0.34, 0.96)	1.43	(0.93, 2.18)
Baseline exceeded CES-D cutoff	0.95	(0.59, 1.54)	1.55	(0.98, 2.47)
Baseline history of lifetime alcohol-related problems	1.37	(1.04, 1.81)	0.64	(0.48, 0.86)