Fig. 3.

Peak temperature change compared with 2018 for different rates of fossil fuel phase-out (FAST, MID and SLOW) plus an abrupt cessation of all emissions (ZERO) from 2030. MID scenarios assume a phase-out of fossil fuel infrastructure based on historical generator lifetimes¹³. FAST and SLOW cases vary these lifetimes by subtracting and adding 10 years, respectively. Shown are results from SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 with for conditional (c) and unconditional (u) NDCs based on socioeconomic developments under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3. Supplementary Figure 8 shows the corresponding ranges for 2100 temperatures. SSP2c-2030-MID and SSP2c-2030-ZERO are consistent with infrastructure and zero emissions commitments in Fig. 1b