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. 2019 Jan 15;10:101. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — First-order variance-based sensitivity analysis of the peak, 2050 and 2100 temperature changes for infrastructure commitments and zero emissions commitments starting in 2018 and 2030. SSP2-driving scenario is assumed with NDC conditional commitments for 2030 start dates. Note that variances do not add up to 100%, as covariance terms account for the remainder