Table 3.
Model Fit Statistics for All Possible Analytic Models That Consider the Individual and Combined Contributions of CRP, IL-6, IL-2, SERPINA3, and AZGP1
| Biomarkers included in the model | PREOP | POD2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIC | C-Statistic (95% CI) | BIC | C-Statistic (95% CI) | |||||
| 1 Biomarker | ||||||||
| AZGP1 | 99.71 | 0.70 (0.58–0.82) | 102.17 | 0.67 (0.54–0.79) | ||||
| A1AC | 106.62 | 0.58 (0.47–0.69) | 104.04 | 0.62 (0.50–0.75) | ||||
| CRP | 98.45 | 0.69 (0.57–0.81) | 89.41 | 0.78 (0.67–0.88) | ||||
| IL2 | 106.53 | 0.62 (0.44–0.81) | 103.28 | 0.69 (0.55–0.82) | ||||
| IL-6 | 107.26 | 0.56 (0.37–0.76) | 91.01 | 0.76 (0.65–0.87) | ||||
| 2 Biomarkers | ||||||||
| SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 100.68 | 0.73 (0.61–0.84) | 104.08 | 0.69 (0.57–0.81) | |||
| CRP | AZGP1 | 93.82 | 0.77 (0.67–0.88) | 92.81 | 0.78 (0.68–0.89) | |||
| IL2 | AZGP1 | 101.90 | 0.72 (0.61–0.84) | 99.83 | 0.74 (0.63–0.86) | |||
| IL-6 | AZGP1 | 102.97 | 0.71 (0.59–0.83) | 91.80 | 0.79 (0.69–0.89) | |||
| CRP | SERPINA3 | 101.49 | 0.71 (0.60–0.83) | 93.44 | 0.78 (0.67–0.89) | |||
| IL2 | SERPINA3 | 109.35 | 0.65 (0.50–0.79) | 103.06 | 0.72 (0.60–0.85) | |||
| IL-6 | SERPINA3 | 110.15 | 0.60 (0.47–0.72) | 93.48 | 0.77 (0.67–0.88) | |||
| IL2 | CRP | 100.97 | 0.73 (0.61–0.85) | 87.33 | 0.82 (0.72–0.92) | |||
| IL-6 | CRP | 101.43 | 0.70 (0.58–0.82) | 87.16 | 0.82 (0.72–0.92) | |||
| IL-6 | IL2 | 109.82 | 0.63 (0.45–0.80) | 92.50 | 0.77 (0.67–0.88) | |||
| 3 Biomarkers | ||||||||
| CRP | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 97.90 | 0.78 (0.68–0.88) | 96.83 | 0.79 (0.69–0.89) | ||
| IL2 | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 103.30 | 0.72 (0.64–0.86) | 101.78 | 0.76 (0.64–0.87) | ||
| IL2 | CRP | AZGP1 | 95.84 | 0.79 (0.69–0.89) | 89.95 | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | ||
| IL2 | CRP | SERPINA3 | 103.43 | 0.74 (0.63–0.86) | 91.11 | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | ||
| IL-6 | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 104.55 | 0.73 (0.62–0.85) | 95.07 | 0.80 (0.70–0.90) | ||
| IL-6 | CRP | AZGP1 | 97.27 | 0.78 (0.68–0.88) | 90.46 | 0.83 (0.73–0.92) | ||
| IL-6 | CRP | SERPINA3 | 104.19 | 0.73 (0.61–0.84) | 91.34 | 0.82 (0.72–0.92) | ||
| IL-6 | IL2 | AZGP1 | 105.27 | 0.73 (0.62–0.85) | 91.42 | 0.81 (0.72–0.91) | ||
| IL-6 | IL2 | SERPINA3 | 112.82 | 0.66 (0.51–0.80) | 94.58 | 0.80 (0.69–0.90) | ||
| IL-6 | IL2 | CRP | 103.60 | 0.74 (0.61–0.86) | 87.11 | 0.84 (0.75–0.93) | ||
| 4 Biomarkers | ||||||||
| IL2 | CRP | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 99.67 | 0.80 (0.70–0.90) | 93.74 | 0.83 (0.74–0.93) | |
| IL-6 | CRP | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 101.20 | 0.79 (0.69–0.89) | 94.68 | 0.83 (0.74–0.93) | |
| IL-6 | IL2 | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 107.17 | 0.75 (0.64–0.86) | 94.60 | 0.82 (0.73–0.92) | |
| IL-6 | IL2 | CRP | AZGP1 | 99.01 | 0.80 (0.70–0.90) | 89.47 | 0.85 (0.76–0.94) | |
| IL-6 | IL2 | CRP | SERPINA3 | 105.65 | 0.76 (0.65–0.88) | 91.03 | 0.84 (0.75–0.94) | |
| 5 Biomarkers | ||||||||
| IL-6 | IL2 | CRP | SERPINA3 | AZGP1 | 102.59 | 0.81 (0.71–0.91) | 93.48 | 0.86 (0.77–0.94) |
Note: SERPINA3 = alpha-1 antichymotrypsin; CRP = C-reactive protein; IL = interleukin; POD2 = postoperative day 2; PREOP = preoperative; AZGP1 = zinc-alpha2-glycoprotein. The two bolded rows indicate the “best” PREOP and “best” POD2 models as determined from the lowest Bayesian information criteria (BIC) value and highest c-statistic. When these two criteria did not agree with each other, we prioritized the BIC. BIC and c-statistic presented for average of 1,000 bootstrapped samples based on the 75 matched pairs.