Fig. 1.

a National tuberculosis cases and rate of disease (2000–2016). Actual: Between 2000 and 2016, the national rate declined by 16% or ~ 1% per annum—half of the most optimistic estimates and less than a quarter of the most aggressive targets we would need to achieve in order to meet the 2035 elimination goals. b Estimated number of years (~ 85) to pre-elimination targets given a 2% per annum reduction in incidence. Optimistic: Based on conventional wisdom that once the foreign-born migrants contribute more than 70% of cases, the annual incidence, using routine or continued programming, will not decline by more than 2% per year. Foreign-born migrants have contributed > 70% of cases since 2015. c Decline in national incidence to 10/1,000,000 population by 2035. Aggressive: Ideal reduction in the annual TB incidence rate to meet pre-elimination by 2035