Figure 2.

Predicting decisions from experience and description. The plot shows the predictive accuracy of 12 choice models tested using choice problems with a risky and a safe option. In decisions from experience, the choice proportion is calculated as a function of three categories of sample sizes (0–10, 11–30, greater than 30). Data include 15 054 experience- and 10 239 description-based choices compiled in Wulff et al.'s [45] meta-analysis. The model competition includes six heuristics (NM, P, LEX, EP, MIN, MAX), three variants of cumulative prospect theory (CPT_lo, CPT_tk, CPT_e), a Bayesian updating model (BM), round-wise integration (RW) and the exemplar confusion model (ExCon). Details of the models are described in the electronic supplementary material.