Table 2.
Risk factors selected for simple and multiple logistic models for the prediction of dengue local transmission propagation probability. Model M2 (bold) was selected based on the result of AIC and residual deviance
| Model | Variable | Time lag (weeks) | AIC | Residual deviance | Odds | 95% CI | P- value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Null | 1 | 0 | 173.4 | 171.4 | 0.13 | 0.08–0.19 | <0.001 |
| Simple | Dengue imported | 4 | 113.27 | 109.27 | 2.42 | 1.84–3.32 | <0.001 |
| Simple | Tweets | 4 | 117.74 | 113.74 | 1.03 | 1.02–1.04 | <0.001 |
| Simple | Mosquito IMFA | 4 | 137.8 | 133.80 | 13.30 | 5.50–35.78 | <0.001 |
| Simple | Maximum temperature | 4 | 151.3 | 147.30 | 1.26 | 1.13–1.41 | <0.001 |
| Simple | DENV in mosquitoes | 4 | 164.65 | 160.65 | 1.83 | 1.26–2.76 | <0.01 |
| Simple | Mean temperature | 0 | 169.36 | 173.36 | 1.06 | 0.97–1.17 | |
| Simple | Minimum temperature | 0 | 172.77 | 168.77 | 1.08 | 0.98–1.19 | |
| Simple | Humidity | 0 | 175.37 | 171.37 | 1.00 | 0.94–1.07 | |
| Simple | Rain | 0 | 175.30 | 171.30 | 1.01 | 0.93–1.09 | |
| M2 Multiple | Dengue imported | 4 | 67.19 | 55.19 | 5.93 | 2.68–17.70 | <0.001 |
| Tweets | 1.06 | 1.04–1.10 | <0.001 | ||||
| DENV in mosquitoes | 1.92 | 1.04–4.24 | |||||
| Maximum temperature | 1.76 | 1.35–2.56 | <0.001 | ||||
| Dengue imported:Tweets | 0.99 | 0.98–0.99 | <0.01 | ||||
| Multiple | Dengue imported | 4 | 69.16 | 55.16 | 5.79 | 2.50–17.76 | <0.001 |
| Tweets | 1.06 | 1.04–1.10 | <0.001 | ||||
| Mosquito IMFA | 1.17 | 0.20–6.28 | |||||
| DENV in mosquitoes | 1.93 | 1.05–4.27 | |||||
| Maximum temperature | 1.75 | 1.34–2.56 | <0.001 | ||||
| Dengue imported:Tweets | 0.99 | 0.98–0.99 | <0.01 | ||||
| Multiple | Dengue imported | 4 | 78.57 | 68.57 | 1.92 | 1.34–3.06 | <0.01 |
| DENV in mosquitoes | 1.68 | 0.98–3.07 | |||||
| Tweets | 1.03 | 1.01–1.05 | <0.001 | ||||
| Maximum temperature | 1.58 | 1.28–2.07 | <0.001 | ||||
| Multiple | Dengue imported | 4 | 79.57 | 67.57 | 1.78 | 1.24–2.88 | <0.01 |
| Mosquito IMFA | 2.16 | 0.46–9.88 | |||||
| DENV in mosquitoes | 1.69 | 0.98–3.14 | |||||
| Tweets | 1.03 | 1.02–1.05 | <0.001 | ||||
| Maximum temperature | 1.54 | 1.24–2.03 | <0.001 | ||||
| Multiple | Dengue imported | 4 | 80.13 | 72.13 | 1.95 | 1.35–3.08 | <0.01 |
| Tweets | 1.03 | 1.02–1.05 | <0.001 | ||||
| Maximum temperature | 1.52 | 1.25–1.94 | <0.01 | ||||
| Multiple | Tweets | 4 | 94.79 | 88.79 | 1.04 | 1.03–1.06 | <0.001 |
| Maximum temperature | 1.47 | 1.25–1.80 | <0.001 | ||||
| Multiple | Dengue imported | 4 | 97.08 | 89.09 | 1.50 | 1.15–2.10 | <0.01 |
| Tweets | 1.02 | 1.01–1.03 | <0.001 | ||||
| Mosquito IMFA | 5.47 | 1.65–19.57 | <0.01 |
Notes: Data indicate the influence of each variable studied in the response variable: 5 or more dengue confirmed local cases (local transmission of dengue propagation). Each variable was evaluated at 5 different time points of forecast (lag zero to four). The logistic model was performed for each unique variable. The odds column indicates how each variable affect the chance of dengue local transmission to occur
Abbreviations: AIC Akaike information criterion, CI confidence interval, IMFA mean infestation of female Aedes aegypti, DENV dengue virus