Table 3.

Validation and decision model for the risk of dengue local transmission introduction (M1) and propagation (M2). Both models were divided into three risk levels (low, moderate and high) for the decision making based on these probabilities

Model	Variable	Time lag (weeks)	AUC	Probability cut-point	Accuracy (%)	Sensitivity TPR (%)	Specificity TNR (%)	Risk decision model
M1: Local transmission initiation	Dengue imported	3	0.92					< 0.20	Green	Low
	Tweets			0.20	85.22	82.46	86.13	0.20 ≤ x < 0.60	Yellow	Moderate
	Mosquito IMFA			0.60	87.39	61.40	95.95	≥ 0.60	Orange	High
M2: Disease propagation	Dengue imported	4	0.98					< 0.20	Green	Low
	DENV in mosquitoes			0.20	92.61	92.86	92.57	0.20 ≤ x < 0.50	Orange	Moderate
	Tweets			0.50	94.78	75.00	97.52	≥ 0.50	Red	High
	Maximum temperature

Abbreviations: AUC area under the curve, TNR true negative rate, TPR true positive rate, IMFA mean infestation of female Aedes aegypti, DENV dengue virus