Table 2.

Discriminative power of lactate, selected clinical parameters, and composite clinical scores as predictors of mortality

Predictors	AUROC (95% CI)	P-value	Optimum threshold	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)	PPV (95% CI)	NPV (95% CI)
Lactate	0.76 (0.64–0.87)	0.00013	3.4 mmol/L	0.68 (0.45–0.86)	0.74 (0.66–0.82)	0.31 (0.23–0.4)	0.93 (0.88–0.96)
Respiratory rate	0.50 (0.36–0.65)	0.99	56 minutes−1	0.59 (0.36–0.79)	0.28 (0.2–0.36)	0.12 (0.086–0.16)	0.80 (0.70–0.88)
Oxygen saturation	0.64 (0.51–0.77)	0.036	72%	0.59 (0.36–0.79)	0.14 (0.082–0.21)	0.1 (0.074–0.14)	0.67 (0.51–0.79)
Chest indrawing	0.52 (0.45–0.59)	0.63	–	0.91 (0.71–0.99)	0.13 (0.076–0.2)	0.15 (0.13–0.17)	0.89 (0.68–0.97)
Bedside PEWS*	0.56 (0.42–0.69)	0.41	12	0.64 (0.41–0.83)	0.47 (0.38–0.55)	0.16 (0.12–0.22)	0.89 (0.81–0.93)
RISC†	0.57 (0.41–0.72)	0.32	3.5	0.5 (0.28–0.72)	0.71 (0.62–0.78)	0.22 (0.15–0.32)	0.90 (0.85–0.93)
LODS‡	0.58 (0.44–0.72)	0.16	1.5	0.50 (0.28–0.72)	0.73 (0.65–0.80)	0.23 (0.16–0.34)	0.90 (0.85–0.93)
FEAST PET§	0.70 (0.58–0.82)	0.0022	4.5	0.41 (0.21–0.64)	0.89 (0.82–0.94)	0.37 (0.23–0.55)	0.90 (0.86–0.93)
SICK‖	0.71 (0.59–0.82)	0.002	3.7	0.68 (0.45–0.86)	0.72 (0.64–0.80)	0.29 (0.21–0.38)	0.93 (0.88–0.96)
PEDIA¶	0.73 (0.62–0.84)	< 0.0001	2.5	0.59 (0.36–0.79)	0.78 (0.70–0.85)	0.31 (0.22–0.42)	0.92 (0.87––0.95)
Lactate + PEDIA#	0.81 (0.71–0.92)	< 0.0001	−1.4	0.68 (0.45–0.86)	0.87 (0.80–0.92)	0.47 (0.34–0.60)	0.94 (0.90–0.97)

NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value.

* Bedside Pediatric Early Warning System (PEWS).²³

† Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC).²⁷

‡ Lambarene Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS).²⁵

§ Fluid as Expansive Supportive Therapy Pediatric Emergency Triage (FEAST PET).²²

‖ Signs of Inflammation in Children that can Kill (SICK).²⁶

¶ Pediatric Early Death Index for Africa (PEDIA).³¹

# Logistic regression model using both PEDIA and lactate as mortality predictors.